Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Wildfire - W of Kahemba, Bandundu - Congo (Kinshasa)

    11 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Tshikapa, Kasa-Occidental - Congo (Kinshasa)

    11 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - NE of Lucapa, Lunda Norte - Angola

    15 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    15 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfires - British Columbia (East of Skuppah Fire), Canada

    18 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Utah County (Bennion Creek Fire), Utah, United States

    18 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Carbon County (Crooked Creek Fire), Montana, United States

    18 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NW of Powell (Robertson Draw Fire), Wyoming - United States

    18 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Helena (Deep Creek Fire), Montana - United States

    18 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Graham County (Pinnacle Fire), Arizona, United States

    18 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SE of Moab (Pack Creek Fire), Utah - United States

    18 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Pinal and Gila Counties (Telegraph Fire), Arizona, United States

    18 minutes ago WARNING

  • Storms - New Zealand

    26 minutes ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Tulungagung Regency, East Java, Indonesia

    42 minutes ago WARNING

  • Storms - Phatthalung, Thailand

    49 minutes ago WARNING

  • Storms - Singapore

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Storms - Brunei

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Etna, Italy

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Potential Tropical Cyclone - Three

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    10 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    10 months ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - U.S. Virgin Islands

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cameroon

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Oaxaca, Mexico

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Southern Denmark

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Latvia

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Western Poland

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northwestern Portugal

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Tasmania, Australia

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Goias, Brazil

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Port-Vendres Commune, France

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    11 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 178 km SE of Hihifo, Tonga

    13 hours ago WATCH

  • Flood - Demopolis, AL Region, United States

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Mandeville--Covington, LA Region, United States

    14 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Nepal

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bhutan

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bekasi City, West Java, Indonesia

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Indragiri Hulu Regency, Riau, Indonesia

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Sijunjung Regency, West Sumatra, Indonesia

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peninsular Malaysia

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Ibu, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Lewotolo, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.9 - 72 km ESE of Amahai, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    10 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Somalia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northeastern Ethiopia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northern Kenya

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Central Asia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - La Rioja, Spain

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Guyana

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southwestern Guyana

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Colombia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Western France

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Eastern France

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northwestern Spain

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Central Asia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Uruguay

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Southern Bolivia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - northern Qinghai, China

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Thailand

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme heat - Hong Kong

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Japan

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nyiragongo, DR Congo

    1 week ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Bagana, Papua New Guinea

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Guinea

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    10 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    10 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    10 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    10 months ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
May 29, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 04W is located approximately 67 NM southwest of Palau

 

Eastern north Pacific

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/eep/07/1800x1080.jpg

Shower activity associated with a weak area of low pressure located about 1000 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is limited and disorganized.

This system is expected to move generally westward at 5 to 10 mph into a drier and more stable airmass during the next few days, with little, if any further development expected.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent

>>> Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated today in association with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development of this system during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of next week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent

 

Tropical Cyclone 04W

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/04W_300000sair.jpg

Sustained 30 knot winds…with gusts to 40 knots (as of Warning Number 2)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a rapidly consolidating system with fragmented, formative bands wrapping into a defined low level circulation…along with overshooting cloud tops over the central convection.

TD 04W is in a favorable environment with good radial outflow, low (5-10k knot) wind shear aloft, and very warm sea surface temperatures in the Philippine Sea.

TD 04W is forecast to continue northwestward offshore and parallel to the east coast of the Philippines over the next 72 hours, under the steering influence of the ridge. The system is forecast to rapidly intensify under the favorable conditions, reaching 45 knots by 25 hours.

Afterward, intensification will be more gradual as wind shear becomes more moderate (15-20 knots), and by 72 hours will reach 60 knots.

After 72 hours, TD 04W will begin to round the ridge axis then accelerate northeastward. At this stage, it will also be over the warmest waters of its forecast track and wind shear will weaken to 05-10kts, fueling the intensity to typhoon strength of 65kts. By 120 hours, the system will reach 70 knots, as it becomes exposed to increased poleward outflow associated with the prevailing westerlies under the polar front jet.

 

 

IR Satellite Image

There’s a second tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 90W, which is located approximately 527 NM southeast of Guam.

Here’s was the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery reveals mid to upper level turning over an ill-defined low level circulation.

Analysis indicates a favorable environment for development characterized by warm sea surface temperatures, a point source aloft with near radial outflow, and low (<15 knot) wind shear.

Global models are in fair agreement that invest 90W will potentially gain intensity over the next couple of days and then lose strength as it propagates northwestward, with the exception of GFS, which shows a strengthening and consolidation beyond 72 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.

 

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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