Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Wildfire - W of Kahemba, Bandundu - Congo (Kinshasa)

    21 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Tshikapa, Kasa-Occidental - Congo (Kinshasa)

    21 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - NE of Lucapa, Lunda Norte - Angola

    15 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    25 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfires - British Columbia (East of Skuppah Fire), Canada

    29 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Utah County (Bennion Creek Fire), Utah, United States

    29 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Carbon County (Crooked Creek Fire), Montana, United States

    29 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NW of Powell (Robertson Draw Fire), Wyoming - United States

    29 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Helena (Deep Creek Fire), Montana - United States

    29 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Graham County (Pinnacle Fire), Arizona, United States

    29 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SE of Moab (Pack Creek Fire), Utah - United States

    29 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Pinal and Gila Counties (Telegraph Fire), Arizona, United States

    29 minutes ago WARNING

  • Storms - New Zealand

    36 minutes ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Tulungagung Regency, East Java, Indonesia

    53 minutes ago WARNING

  • Storms - Phatthalung, Thailand

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Storms - Singapore

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Storms - Brunei

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Etna, Italy

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Potential Tropical Cyclone - Three

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    10 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    10 months ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - U.S. Virgin Islands

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cameroon

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Oaxaca, Mexico

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Southern Denmark

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Latvia

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Western Poland

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northwestern Portugal

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Tasmania, Australia

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Goias, Brazil

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Port-Vendres Commune, France

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    11 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 178 km SE of Hihifo, Tonga

    13 hours ago WATCH

  • Flood - Demopolis, AL Region, United States

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Mandeville--Covington, LA Region, United States

    15 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Nepal

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bhutan

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bekasi City, West Java, Indonesia

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Indragiri Hulu Regency, Riau, Indonesia

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Sijunjung Regency, West Sumatra, Indonesia

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peninsular Malaysia

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Ibu, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Lewotolo, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.9 - 72 km ESE of Amahai, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    10 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Somalia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northeastern Ethiopia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northern Kenya

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Central Asia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - La Rioja, Spain

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Guyana

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southwestern Guyana

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Colombia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Western France

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Eastern France

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northwestern Spain

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Central Asia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Uruguay

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Southern Bolivia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - northern Qinghai, China

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Thailand

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme heat - Hong Kong

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Japan

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nyiragongo, DR Congo

    1 week ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Bagana, Papua New Guinea

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Guinea

    4 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    10 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    10 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    10 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    10 months ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
May 12, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 03W is located approximately 206 NM east of Davao, Philippines

 

Tropical Cyclone 03W

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/03W_130000sair.jpg

Sustained 35 knot winds…with gusts to 45 knots (as of Warning Number 2)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows the system has rapidly consolidated and developed well defined shallow banding features which are wrapping tightly into a compact core with moderate convection. In addition, there’s symmetrical core convection, shallow outer bands…and a weak microwave eye.

Analysis indicates a favorable environment with low (5-10 knot wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. The only inhibiting factor is the lack of a strong outflow mechanism aloft.

TD 03W will continue tracking west-northwestward through 48 hours, along the south-southwestern periphery of the ridge. Thereafter, as it begins to dissipate, it will shift to a slightly more westward track as it comes under the steering influence of the lower-level flow.

For the first 24 hours of the forecast the environment is forecast to remain favorable, with low wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures and marginal outflow aloft, allowing for the system to slowly intensify to a peak of 40 knots just prior to landfall along the central coast of Mindanao.

After landfall TD 03W will begin a steady weakening trend due to terrain interaction. By 48 hours, the system will reemerge over water but will continue to weaken, as an upper-level trough dives southeastward across Palawan and into the Sulu Sea, increasing wind shear and inducing convergent flow aloft. TD 03W is forecast to fully dissipate as a tropical cyclone no later than 72 hours in the Sulu Sea…with a possibility of dissipation as early as 48 hours.

 

20210512.123000.IO922021.seviri.msg-1.Infrared-Gray.25kts.100p0.1p0.jpg thumbnail

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 92A, which is located approximately 560 NM southwest of Mumbai, India

Here’s was the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery reveals broad area of disorganized deep convection in the vicinity of an elongated area of low level turning.

Environmental analysis indicate invest 92A is in a marginally favorable environment with moderate outflow aloft, very warm sea surface temperature…and moderate (15-20 knot) wind shear.

Global models are in good agreement that invest 92A will consolidate and intensify…as it tracks eastward over the next 24-48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.

 

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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