CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 03W is located approximately 206 NM east of Davao, Philippines
Tropical Cyclone 03W
Sustained 35 knot winds…with gusts to 45 knots (as of Warning Number 2)
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows the system has rapidly consolidated and developed well defined shallow banding features which are wrapping tightly into a compact core with moderate convection. In addition, there’s symmetrical core convection, shallow outer bands…and a weak microwave eye.
Analysis indicates a favorable environment with low (5-10 knot wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. The only inhibiting factor is the lack of a strong outflow mechanism aloft.
TD 03W will continue tracking west-northwestward through 48 hours, along the south-southwestern periphery of the ridge. Thereafter, as it begins to dissipate, it will shift to a slightly more westward track as it comes under the steering influence of the lower-level flow.
For the first 24 hours of the forecast the environment is forecast to remain favorable, with low wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures and marginal outflow aloft, allowing for the system to slowly intensify to a peak of 40 knots just prior to landfall along the central coast of Mindanao.
After landfall TD 03W will begin a steady weakening trend due to terrain interaction. By 48 hours, the system will reemerge over water but will continue to weaken, as an upper-level trough dives southeastward across Palawan and into the Sulu Sea, increasing wind shear and inducing convergent flow aloft. TD 03W is forecast to fully dissipate as a tropical cyclone no later than 72 hours in the Sulu Sea…with a possibility of dissipation as early as 48 hours.
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 92A, which is located approximately 560 NM southwest of Mumbai, India
Here’s was the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery reveals broad area of disorganized deep convection in the vicinity of an elongated area of low level turning.
Environmental analysis indicate invest 92A is in a marginally favorable environment with moderate outflow aloft, very warm sea surface temperature…and moderate (15-20 knot) wind shear.
Global models are in good agreement that invest 92A will consolidate and intensify…as it tracks eastward over the next 24-48 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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