CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 24S (Habana) is located approximately 726 NM south-southeast of Diego Garcia
Tropical Cyclone 24S (Habana)
Sustained 85 knot winds…with gusts to 115 knots (as of Warning Number 12)
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, TC 24S showed significant development over the past twelve hours as it moved away from a cold pool, and into warmer waters. A 10 NM eye began showing over the last three hours.
Environmental conditions have improved and look to remain favorable for the next 48 hours. Wind shear is<15 knots, sea surface temperatures are warm along the track, and animated water vapor imagery shows radial outflow over a relatively small and tightly wrapped system. Sea surface temperature, not wind shear, has been the primary influence on intensity on this storm.
A ridge will continue driving the system west-northwestward through the next 36 hours, when a deepening trough associated with the mid-latitude westerlies weakens the ridge. After 36 hours, the system will lose steering influence from the ridge and begin a slow, graceful bend into the mid-latitudes…peaking in intensity 48 hours.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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