Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Wildfire - SE of Chittagong - Bangladesh

    2 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    7 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Soufrière St. Vincent, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

    23 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    57 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    59 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - St. Louis, MO--IL Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Telimele, Kindia - Guinea

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - NW of Chico, California - United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Pinal County (Margo Fire), Arizona, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NW of Safford, Arizona - United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - Alachua, FL Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Tropical Cyclone - Twentyeight

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Cyclone - Seroja

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Excelsior Springs, MO Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 44 km SSW of Gongdanglegi Kulon, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 6.1 - 168 km SSW of Sarangani, Philippines

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 21 km S of Sumberpucung, Indonesia

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - South Shetland Islands

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Floods - Southeastern, United States

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 195 km N of Madang, Papua New Guinea

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    16 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Pacific Ocean

    18 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sinabung, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - New South Wales, Australia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Switzerland

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Yukon, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Loreto, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - British Columbia, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cusco, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Uruguay

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Quilotoa, Ecuador

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Bjaur, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, Pakistan

    2 days ago INFORMATION

  • Floods - Dominican Republic

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Valle Cannobina Municipality, Italy

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Guinea

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Madagascar

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern Africa

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - U.S. Virgin Islands

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Butembo, DRC

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    8 months ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
March 6, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
 Tropical Cyclone 24S (Habana) is located approximately 682 NM south-southeast of Diego Garcia
Tropical Cyclone 23P (Niran) is located approximately 572 NM south-southwest of Suva, Fiji Final Warning

 

Tropical Cyclone 24S (Habana)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/24S_061800sair.jpg

Sustained 120 knot winds…with gusts to 145 knots (as of Warning Number 6)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a compact system that maintained a pinhole 12 NM eye as the central dense overcast deepened and became more symmetric.

TC 24S is in an overall favorable environment with dual channel upper level outflow, low 10-15 knot wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.

TC Habana is expected to slow down and begin tracking southeastward then southward through the next 24-48 hours. Afterward, a subtropical ridge will build to the south and assume steering, turning the system to a westward track for the remainder of the forecast.

TC 24S is forecast to slowly weaken primarily due to the limited upper level outflow, and by 72 hours will be reduced to 80 knots.
Afterward, a secondary intensification phase will occur by 120 hours…which will allow re-strengthening to 90 knots.

 

Tropical Cyclone 23P (Niran) Final Warning

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/23P_070000sair.jpg

Sustained 50 knot winds…with gusts to 65 knots (as of Warning Number 25) 

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows the system has continued to elongate, with frontal characteristics more pronounced as it accelerated to the southeast.

Upper level analysis indicates robust poleward outflow that is offset by strong 30+ knot wind shear. Sea surface temperatures have also dropped.

The unfavorable environment will sustain the rapid weakening down to 40 knots by 36 hours. Concurrently, TC Niran will begin subtropical transition by 12 hours, and by 36 hours will become a gale-force subtropical low…possibly sooner.

 

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/image_archives/2021/sh912021.21030612.gif

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc21/SHEM/91S.INVEST/ir/geo/1km_bw/20210306.211500.SH912021.seviri.msg-4.Infrared-Gray.30kts.100p0.1p0.jpg

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 91S, which is located approximately 142 NM west-southwest Des Galets, La Reunion Island

Here’s was the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows quickly consolidating and flaring convection.

Environmental analysis shows 91S is a favorable environment with dual channel upper level outflow, moderate 15-20 knot wind shear…and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in general agreement that 91S will track east-southeast while continuing to consolidate and intensify.

Maximum sustained surface temperatures are estimated at 25-30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.

 

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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