Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Volcano - Soufrière St. Vincent, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

    16 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    50 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    52 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    56 minutes ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - St. Louis, MO--IL Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Telimele, Kindia - Guinea

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - NW of Chico, California - United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Pinal County (Margo Fire), Arizona, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NW of Safford, Arizona - United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - Alachua, FL Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SE of Chittagong - Bangladesh

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tropical Cyclone - Twentyeight

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Cyclone - Seroja

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Excelsior Springs, MO Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 44 km SSW of Gongdanglegi Kulon, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 6.1 - 168 km SSW of Sarangani, Philippines

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 21 km S of Sumberpucung, Indonesia

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - South Shetland Islands

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Floods - Southeastern, United States

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 195 km N of Madang, Papua New Guinea

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    16 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Pacific Ocean

    18 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sinabung, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - New South Wales, Australia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Switzerland

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Yukon, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Loreto, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - British Columbia, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cusco, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Uruguay

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Quilotoa, Ecuador

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Bjaur, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, Pakistan

    2 days ago INFORMATION

  • Floods - Dominican Republic

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Valle Cannobina Municipality, Italy

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Guinea

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Madagascar

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern Africa

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - U.S. Virgin Islands

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Butembo, DRC

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    8 months ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
March 5, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 22S (Marian) is located approximately 1018 NM west-southwest of Learmonth, Australia – Final Warning
Tropical Cyclone 24S (Habana) is located approximately 604 NM south-southeast of Diego Garcia
Tropical Cyclone 23P (Niran) is located approximately 294 NM west-northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia

 

Tropical Cyclone 22S (Marian) Final Warning

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/22s_060000sair.jpg

Sustained 35 knot winds…with gusts to 45 knots (as of Warning Number 17)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows that the core of the system has been completely sheared apart, with modest convection sheared significantly southeastward of the low level circulation center.

Analysis reveals a very unfavorable environment characterized by high 30+ knot wind shear and cool sea surface temperatures overcoming the very robust poleward outflow.TC 22S will continue to track southward, turning slightly southwestward by 36 hours, as it dissipates below warning criteria, and comes under the steering influence of the low level synoptic flow.

 

 

Tropical Cyclone 24S (Habana)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/24S_051800sair.jpg

Sustained 120 knot winds…with gusts to 145 knots (as of Warning Number 4)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows that TC 24S has undergone a cycle of extremely rapid intensification over the previous six hours. A small 10 NM wide eye feature developed, with deep convection completely surrounding the very small and intense core.

The environment is obviously very favorable with very low 5-7 knot wind shear, strong poleward and moderate equatorward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures.

TC Habana is expected to continue tracking east-northeast through 24 hours, then turn east. Through 72 hours there will be a turn to the south. Thereafter a strong ridge will build into the south and turn TC 24P onto a westward track through the remainder of the forecast.

The forecast calls for the system to reach a peak of 100 knots by 12 hours before starting a slow weakening trend through the remainder of the forecast, primarily in response to a decrease in upper-level outflow and some mid-level dry air entrainment.

 

 

Tropical Cyclone 23P (Niran)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/23P_060000sair.jpg

Sustained 130 knot winds…with gusts to 160 knots (as of Warning Number 20) – Equivalent to a Super Typhoon

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows that the eye that was so clearly evident six hours ago has now completely filled. The convective structure has also deteriorated over the past six hours, with little in the way of deep convection in the southern and southwestern quadrants

The system is expected to intensify to a peak of 110 knots by 24 hours as it enters a short period of very strong poleward outflow and relatively low wind shear.

This intensification will be short lived and by 36 hours, the steadily increasing wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures will conspire to weaken the system as it rapidly translates to the southeast.

As the system passes New Caledonia and begins to transition to subtropical, the guidance becomes increasingly uncertain with some models unrealistically moving the system well to the south of New Zealand, while the remainder of the consensus members show a slow turn towards the east after 72 hours, as a strong transient high pressure area develops east of New Zealand.

 

 

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc21/SHEM/91S.INVEST/ir/geo/1km_bw/20210306.051500.SH912021.seviri.msg-4.Infrared-Gray.25kts.100p0.1p0.jpg

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 91S, which is located approximately 104 NM southwest of Toamasina, Madagascar

Here’s was the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows disorganized and flaring convection over land, without a clear low level circulation.

However, 91S is poised to exit into the South Indian Ocean into a favorable environment with excellent dual channel upper level outflow, low <15 knot wind shear…and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in general agreement that 91S will undergo minimal consolidation and intensification over the next 3-days.

Maximum sustained surface temperatures are estimated at 20-25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

 

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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