Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Volcano - Soufrière St. Vincent, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

    8 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    43 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    45 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    49 minutes ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    55 minutes ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    59 minutes ago WARNING

  • Flood - St. Louis, MO--IL Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Telimele, Kindia - Guinea

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - NW of Chico, California - United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Pinal County (Margo Fire), Arizona, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NW of Safford, Arizona - United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - Alachua, FL Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SE of Chittagong - Bangladesh

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tropical Cyclone - Twentyeight

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Cyclone - Seroja

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Excelsior Springs, MO Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 44 km SSW of Gongdanglegi Kulon, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 6.1 - 168 km SSW of Sarangani, Philippines

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 21 km S of Sumberpucung, Indonesia

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - South Shetland Islands

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Floods - Southeastern, United States

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 195 km N of Madang, Papua New Guinea

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    16 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Pacific Ocean

    18 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sinabung, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - New South Wales, Australia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Switzerland

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Yukon, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Loreto, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - British Columbia, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cusco, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Uruguay

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Quilotoa, Ecuador

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Bjaur, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, Pakistan

    2 days ago INFORMATION

  • Floods - Dominican Republic

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Valle Cannobina Municipality, Italy

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Guinea

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Madagascar

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern Africa

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - U.S. Virgin Islands

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Butembo, DRC

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    8 months ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
March 4, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 22S (Marian) is located approximately 1080 NM west of Learmonth, Australia
Tropical Cyclone 24S (Habana) is located approximately 578 NM south of Diego Garcia
Tropical Cyclone 23P (Niran) is located approximately 506 NM east of Cairns, Australia

 

Tropical Cyclone 22S (Marian)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/22S_050000sair.jpg

Sustained 45 knot winds…with gusts to 55 knots (as of Warning Number 15)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a weakened system, with a partially exposed low level circulation center and weak, flaring convection wrapping in from the eastern side.

Overall the environment is marginally favorable, with very good poleward outflow and low 7-12 knot wind shear. However the system is currently moving poleward over cooler waters, which is serving to cut off its energy source and put a cap on any further intensification. TC 22S is forecast to steadily weaken, ultimately dissipating as a tropical cyclone by 72 hours.

The system is moving south-southeastward along the western periphery of a subtropical ridge over central Australia, and is forecast to continue this motion through 48 hours. After 48 hours, as the system dissipates, it will start to turn southwestward as the low to mid-level transient ridge to the south takes over the primary steering mechanism.

 

Tropical Cyclone 24S (Habana)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/24S_041800sair.jpg

Sustained 45 knot winds…with gusts to 55 knots (as of Warning Number 2)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a significantly improved convective structure, with well defined convection wrapping into a small core region…in addition to a small microwave eye feature.

The environment is conducive for further intensification, with low 10-15 knot wind shear, robust equatorward and modest poleward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures, with relatively high ocean heat content.

TC 24S is forecast to continue moving generally eastward through 72 hours, with some east-northeast motion between 36-72 hours.

The environment will remain favorable through 48 hours, with poleward outflow increasing ahead of a shortwave trough to the south, allowing for steady intensification to a peak of 60 knots by 48 hours.

This trough will pass south of TC 24S by 72 hours and disrupt the poleward outflow channel and increasing wind shear, leading to a slow weakening trend through the remainder of the forecast.

 

Tropical Cyclone 23P (Niran)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/23P_050000sair.jpg

Sustained 110 knot winds…with gusts to 135 knots (as of Warning Number 17)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows that the eye that was so clearly evident six hours ago has now completely filled. The convective structure has also deteriorated over the past six hours, with little in the way of deep convection in the southern and southwestern quadrants

The system is expected to intensify to a peak of 110 knots by 24 hours as it enters a short period of very strong poleward outflow and relatively low wind shear.

This intensification will be short lived and by 36 hours, the steadily increasing wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures will conspire to weaken the system as it rapidly translates to the southeast.

As the system passes New Caledonia and begins to transition to subtropical, the guidance becomes increasingly uncertain with some models unrealistically moving the system well to the south of New Zealand, while the remainder of the consensus members show a slow turn towards the east after 72 hours, as a strong transient high pressure area develops east of New Zealand.

 

 

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc21/SHEM/91S.INVEST/ir/geo/1km_bw/20210304.143000.SH912021.seviri.msg-4.Infrared-Gray.25kts.100p0.1p0.jpg

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 91S, which is located approximately 274 NM west-northwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar

Here’s was the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a slightly elongated low level circulation with building deep convection overhead.

91S is currently in a favorable environment with excellent dual channel upper level outflow, low <15 knot wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in good agreement that 91S will track east-southeastward with some slight intensification, possibly just reaching warning criteria, before moving over Madagascar within the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained surface temperatures are estimated at 20-25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

 

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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