Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    36 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    38 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    42 minutes ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    48 minutes ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    52 minutes ago WARNING

  • Flood - St. Louis, MO--IL Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Telimele, Kindia - Guinea

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - NW of Chico, California - United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Pinal County (Margo Fire), Arizona, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NW of Safford, Arizona - United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - Alachua, FL Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SE of Chittagong - Bangladesh

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tropical Cyclone - Twentyeight

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Cyclone - Seroja

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Soufrière St. Vincent, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Excelsior Springs, MO Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 44 km SSW of Gongdanglegi Kulon, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 6.1 - 168 km SSW of Sarangani, Philippines

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 21 km S of Sumberpucung, Indonesia

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - South Shetland Islands

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Floods - Southeastern, United States

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 195 km N of Madang, Papua New Guinea

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    16 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Pacific Ocean

    18 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sinabung, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - New South Wales, Australia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Switzerland

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Yukon, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Loreto, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - British Columbia, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cusco, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Uruguay

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Quilotoa, Ecuador

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Bjaur, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, Pakistan

    2 days ago INFORMATION

  • Floods - Dominican Republic

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Valle Cannobina Municipality, Italy

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Guinea

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Madagascar

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern Africa

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - U.S. Virgin Islands

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Butembo, DRC

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    8 months ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
March 3, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 22S (Marian) is located approximately 550 NM south-southwest of Cocos Islands, Australia…in the South Indian Ocean
Tropical Cyclone 23P (Niran) is located approximately 196 NM east-northeast of Cairns, Australia

 

Tropical Cyclone 22S (Marian)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/22S_040000sair.jpg

Sustained 55 knot winds…with gusts to 70 knots (as of Warning Number 13)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows the system has greatly weakened as evidenced by warming cloud tops in the central dense overcast and unraveling rain bands.

The system is in a deteriorating environment, with increasing  15+ knot wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures.

The harsh environment will continue the gradual weakening and eventual dissipation of TC Marian by 96 hours, possibly sooner.

 

Tropical Cyclone 23P (Niran)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/23P_040000sair.jpg

Sustained 85 knot winds…with gusts to 105 knots (as of Warning Number 13)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows the system has maintained overall convective signature with the main feeder band wrapping in from the north into an obscured low level circulation that is under cold overshooting cloud tops.

The environment is overall favorable with low 10-15 knot wind shear, very warm sea surface temperatures partly offset by limited outflow aloft.

The ridge to the north is expected to build and become the dominant steering mechanism, and by 12 hours drive it southeastward, passing just south of New Caledonia around 60 hours, and by 96 hours, should be approximately 440 NM north northeast of Auckland, New Zealand.

The marginally favorable environment will improve as the cyclone tracks poleward into improved upper level outflow, and help fuel a steady intensification to a peak of 105 knots by 36 hours. Afterward, increasing wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures will gradually erode the cyclone down to 70 knots by 96 hours.

 

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/small/tc21/SHEM/90S.INVEST/vapor/modis/1km/20210303.174000.SH902021.modis.terra.WV.25kts.84p9.1p0.jpg

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 90S, which is located approximately 576 NM southwest of Diego Garcia

Here’s was the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows formative convective banding beginning to wrap into an obscured low level circulation center.

Upper level analysis indicates a favorable environment with development characterized by equatorward outflow aloft, low to moderate 10-20 knot winds shear, and very warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models generally indicate invest 90S will track east-southeast as it consolidates and strengthens.

Maximum sustained surface temperatures are estimated at 20-25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.

 

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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