CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 90B, which is located approximately 357 NM west-southwest of Phuket, Thailand
Here’s was the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a disorganized disturbance with weak flaring convection that is offset to the west of a area of broad, elongated, and ill-defined low level circulation…in addition to a lack of consolidation and formative convective structure.
However, invest 90B is in a favorable environment for development with warm sea surface temperatures, abundant westward outflow, and low 05-10 knot wind shear aloft.
Gobal models are split in developing this system. NVGM indicates consolidation and intensification to tropical cyclone strength by 66 hours, GFS shows some consolidation and a brief intensification to tropical cyclone strength by 84 hours, and UKMET and ECMWF indicate that 90B will consolidate marginally without reaching tropical cyclone strength…with
the model consensus tracking the vortex generally north-north eastward toward Yangon, Myanmar.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10-15 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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