Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    25 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    27 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    31 minutes ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    37 minutes ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    41 minutes ago WARNING

  • Flood - St. Louis, MO--IL Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Telimele, Kindia - Guinea

    56 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - NW of Chico, California - United States

    58 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Pinal County (Margo Fire), Arizona, United States

    58 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NW of Safford, Arizona - United States

    58 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - Alachua, FL Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SE of Chittagong - Bangladesh

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tropical Cyclone - Twentyeight

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Cyclone - Seroja

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Soufrière St. Vincent, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Excelsior Springs, MO Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 44 km SSW of Gongdanglegi Kulon, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 6.1 - 168 km SSW of Sarangani, Philippines

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 21 km S of Sumberpucung, Indonesia

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - South Shetland Islands

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Floods - Southeastern, United States

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 195 km N of Madang, Papua New Guinea

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    15 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Pacific Ocean

    18 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sinabung, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - New South Wales, Australia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Switzerland

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Yukon, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Loreto, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - British Columbia, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cusco, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Uruguay

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Quilotoa, Ecuador

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Bjaur, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, Pakistan

    2 days ago INFORMATION

  • Floods - Dominican Republic

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Valle Cannobina Municipality, Italy

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Guinea

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Madagascar

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern Africa

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - U.S. Virgin Islands

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Butembo, DRC

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    8 months ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
March 2, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 22S (Marian) is located approximately 1317 NM west of Learmonth, Australia…in the South Indian Ocean
Tropical Cyclone 23P (Niran) is located approximately 196 NM northeast of Cairns, Australia

 

Tropical Cyclone 22S (Marian)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/22S_030000sair.jpg

Sustained 80 knot winds…with gusts to 100 knots (as of Warning Number 11)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows the system has maintained deep convective signature and a ragged 30 NM eye, albeit with warming cloud tops in the central dense overcast.

The system is in a marginal environment with low 10-15 knot wind shear and good radial outflow, that are offset by subsidence along the southwest quadrant caused by the mid-latitude trough to the southwest…and tepid sea surface temperatures.

The marginal environment is expected to get worse with increasing wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures, leading to gradual weakening and eventual dissipation by 120 hours.

 

Tropical Cyclone 23P (Niran)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/23P_030000sair.jpg

Sustained 65 knot winds…with gusts to 80 knots (as of Warning Number 9)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows the central dense overcast continued to deepen and expand. Additionally, a multispectral satellite image, showed overshooting cloud top and a dimple feature near the center.

The environment is overall favorable with low 10-15 knot wind shear, very warm sea surface temperatures, partly offset by limited outflow aloft. TC 23P is quasi-stationary in a col between the near equatorial ridge extended from the north to southeast of the system…and the subtropical ridge to the west over Australia.

The northern ridge is expected to build and become the dominant steering mechanism and slowly nudge the system out of the col, and by 24 hours, drive it southeastward, passing just south of New Caledonia before around 78, and by 120 hours, should be to the northeast of New Zealand.

The marginally favorable environment will promote a slow intensification to a peak of 80 knots by 96 hours, as the system taps into increased poleward outflow as it approaches the mid-latitude westerlies. Afterward, increasing wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures will begin to erode the cyclone down to 65 knots by 120 hours.

 

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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