Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Volcano - Soufrière St. Vincent, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

    6 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    40 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    42 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    46 minutes ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    53 minutes ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    57 minutes ago WARNING

  • Flood - St. Louis, MO--IL Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Telimele, Kindia - Guinea

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - NW of Chico, California - United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Pinal County (Margo Fire), Arizona, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NW of Safford, Arizona - United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - Alachua, FL Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SE of Chittagong - Bangladesh

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tropical Cyclone - Twentyeight

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Cyclone - Seroja

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Excelsior Springs, MO Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 44 km SSW of Gongdanglegi Kulon, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 6.1 - 168 km SSW of Sarangani, Philippines

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 21 km S of Sumberpucung, Indonesia

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - South Shetland Islands

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Floods - Southeastern, United States

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 195 km N of Madang, Papua New Guinea

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    16 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Pacific Ocean

    18 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sinabung, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - New South Wales, Australia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Switzerland

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Yukon, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Loreto, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - British Columbia, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cusco, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Uruguay

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Quilotoa, Ecuador

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Bjaur, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, Pakistan

    2 days ago INFORMATION

  • Floods - Dominican Republic

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Valle Cannobina Municipality, Italy

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Guinea

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Madagascar

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern Africa

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - U.S. Virgin Islands

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Butembo, DRC

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    8 months ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
March 14, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 24S (Habana) is located approximately 781 NM east of Port Louis, Mauritius

 

Tropical Cyclone 24S (Habana)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/24S_141800sair.jpg

Sustained 55 knot winds…with gusts to 70 knots (as of Warning Number 22)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, TC 24S is weakening steadily under moderate to strong 20-30 knot west-northwesterly wind shear associated with an upper-level trough and dry air entrainment as revealed in animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery and total precipitable water imagery. In addition, there’s increasingly disorganized convection structure with warming cloud top temperatures.

Vigorous poleward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures are offsetting the persistent wind shear and dry air entrainment somewhat, however, TC Habana is forecast to continue weakening through the forecast period, under increasing wind shear and dry air entrainment.

TC 24S is situated within a weak steering environment between a subtropical ridge (str) to the west and a str to the east, and is expected to track erratically over the next 24 hours then accelerate westward as a broad str builds to the south by 36 hours.

Continued high wind shear, increasing mid-level dry air entrainment, and the development of convergent flow aloft will serve to steadily weaken the system through the forecast period. There remains a possibility that the overall unfavorable conditions could result in dissipation as early as 72 hours. However, models are suggesting a small improvement in the moisture and shear environment, which combined with a track over warmer water, will allow for the system to remain a minimal tropical storm through 120 hours.

Due to the steady weakening trend, increasing wind shear and dry air entrainment, the system is now expected to dissipate by 96 hours or perhaps earlier. There is a low probability that the system may regenerate to gale-force strength after 96 hours as it tracks westward over warmer warmer, although upper-level conditions are expected to remain marginal.

 

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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