Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    20 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SE of Chittagong - Bangladesh

    16 minutes ago INFORMATION

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    36 minutes ago WARNING

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    1 hour ago WARNING

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    1 hour ago WARNING

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    1 hour ago WARNING

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    1 hour ago WARNING

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    1 hour ago WARNING

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    2 hours ago WARNING

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    1 hour ago ADVISORY

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    1 hour ago WARNING

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    1 hour ago WARNING

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    1 hour ago WARNING

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    1 hour ago ADVISORY

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    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Alachua, FL Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Tropical Cyclone - Twentyeight

    5 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    5 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Cyclone - Seroja

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Excelsior Springs, MO Region, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 44 km SSW of Gongdanglegi Kulon, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 6.1 - 168 km SSW of Sarangani, Philippines

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 21 km S of Sumberpucung, Indonesia

    13 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - South Shetland Islands

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Floods - Southeastern, United States

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 195 km N of Madang, Papua New Guinea

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    16 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Pacific Ocean

    18 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sinabung, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - India

    1 day ago WARNING

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    1 day ago WARNING

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    1 day ago WARNING

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    1 day ago WARNING

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    1 day ago WARNING

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    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Yukon, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

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    1 day ago WARNING

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    1 day ago WARNING

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    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cusco, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Uruguay

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Quilotoa, Ecuador

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Bjaur, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, Pakistan

    2 days ago INFORMATION

  • Floods - Dominican Republic

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Valle Cannobina Municipality, Italy

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Guinea

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Madagascar

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern Africa

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - U.S. Virgin Islands

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Butembo, DRC

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    8 months ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
March 13, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 24S (Habana) is located approximately 717 NM east of Port Louis, Mauritius

 

Tropical Cyclone 24S (Habana)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/24S_131800sair.jpg

Sustained 80 knot winds…with gusts to 100 knots (as of Warning Number 20)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows the presence of northwesterly wind shear and dry air entrainment, leading to a degraded convective structure. Microwave images depict the strong low level circulation center with good effect. While the center remains robust, the microwave data also confirms the significant erosion of convective structure on the northwestern side due to the relatively high 20-25 knot wind shear.

The overall environment is becoming increasingly unfavorable, with strong and persistent northwesterly wind shear and entrainment of increasingly drier air in the mid-levels, being offset somewhat by a robust tap into a poleward outflow channel. The system is nearly stationary in a weak steering pattern.

As the trough slowly moves to the east over the next 36 hours, TC 24S is forecast to remain quasi-stationary, very slowly looping in a counter-clockwise motion. By 48 hours, a relatively strong ridge will build in behind the trough, ejecting TC Habana out of the weak steering region and accelerate it westward through 120 hours.

Continued high wind shear, increasing mid-level dry air entrainment, and the development of convergent flow aloft will serve to steadily weaken the system through the forecast period. There remains a possibility that the overall unfavorable conditions could result in dissipation as early as 72 hours. However, models are suggesting a small improvement in the moisture and shear environment, which combined with a track over warmer water, will allow for the system to remain a minimal tropical storm through 120 hours.

 

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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