Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    23 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    25 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    29 minutes ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    36 minutes ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    40 minutes ago WARNING

  • Flood - St. Louis, MO--IL Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Telimele, Kindia - Guinea

    55 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - NW of Chico, California - United States

    57 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Pinal County (Margo Fire), Arizona, United States

    57 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NW of Safford, Arizona - United States

    57 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - Alachua, FL Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SE of Chittagong - Bangladesh

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tropical Cyclone - Twentyeight

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Cyclone - Seroja

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Soufrière St. Vincent, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Excelsior Springs, MO Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 44 km SSW of Gongdanglegi Kulon, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 6.1 - 168 km SSW of Sarangani, Philippines

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 21 km S of Sumberpucung, Indonesia

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - South Shetland Islands

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Floods - Southeastern, United States

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 195 km N of Madang, Papua New Guinea

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    15 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Pacific Ocean

    18 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sinabung, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - New South Wales, Australia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Switzerland

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Yukon, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Loreto, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - British Columbia, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cusco, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Uruguay

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Quilotoa, Ecuador

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Bjaur, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, Pakistan

    2 days ago INFORMATION

  • Floods - Dominican Republic

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Valle Cannobina Municipality, Italy

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Guinea

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Madagascar

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern Africa

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - U.S. Virgin Islands

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Butembo, DRC

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    8 months ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
March 11, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 24S (Habana) is located approximately 553 NM east-northeast of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues Island, Mauritius

 

Tropical Cyclone 24S (Habana)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/24S_111800sair.jpg

Sustained 125 knot winds…with gusts to 150 knots (as of Warning Number 16)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a well-defined, clear eye surrounded by a central dense overcast that has been periodically broken in the western semicircle, possibly due to dry entrainment as upper-level winds begin to become westerly.

TC 24S remains in an environment of light 5 knot wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures, and is currently limited only by ambient dry air that is being periodically ingested into the circulation from the western and northern semicircles.

As the cyclone turns southward during the next 48 hours, a combination of gradually increasing wind shear, slightly cooler water, and dry entrainment will likely result in a gradual decrease in intensity.

Beyond 48 hours, the track forecast becomes important, as a quasi-stationary motion is expected to cause oceanic cooling beneath the cyclone. Combined with a simultaneous increase in  wind shear to 30-40 knots, this is expected to result in rapid weakening between 48 and 72 hours, and steady decay thereafter through 120 hours.

By 48 hours, 24S will become marooned in a weak steering environment, consisting of westerly flow aloft and easterly flow in the lower troposphere as a surface high builds in from the southwest. There is good agreement in model guidance that a near-stall will occur around 48-72 hours.

Given the expectation that the vortex will rapidly decay and lose vertical coherence during this time, the JTWC track forecast shows a slow turn westward after 72 hours, as the low-level easterly flow becomes the dominant steering mechanism for the weakening cyclone.

 

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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