Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    19 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    21 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    25 minutes ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    32 minutes ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    36 minutes ago WARNING

  • Flood - St. Louis, MO--IL Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Telimele, Kindia - Guinea

    51 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - NW of Chico, California - United States

    53 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Pinal County (Margo Fire), Arizona, United States

    53 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NW of Safford, Arizona - United States

    53 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - Alachua, FL Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SE of Chittagong - Bangladesh

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tropical Cyclone - Twentyeight

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Cyclone - Seroja

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Soufrière St. Vincent, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Excelsior Springs, MO Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 44 km SSW of Gongdanglegi Kulon, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 6.1 - 168 km SSW of Sarangani, Philippines

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 21 km S of Sumberpucung, Indonesia

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - South Shetland Islands

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Floods - Southeastern, United States

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 195 km N of Madang, Papua New Guinea

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    15 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Pacific Ocean

    18 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sinabung, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - New South Wales, Australia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Switzerland

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Yukon, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Loreto, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - British Columbia, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cusco, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Uruguay

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Quilotoa, Ecuador

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Bjaur, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, Pakistan

    2 days ago INFORMATION

  • Floods - Dominican Republic

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Valle Cannobina Municipality, Italy

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Guinea

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Madagascar

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern Africa

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - U.S. Virgin Islands

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Butembo, DRC

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    8 months ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
March 1, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 22S (Marian) is located approximately 1399 NM west of Learmonth, Australia…in the South Indian Ocean
Tropical Cyclone 23P (Niran) is located approximately 154 NM northeast of Cairns, Australia

 

Tropical Cyclone 22S (Marian)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/22S_020000sair.jpg

Sustained 90 knot winds…with gusts to 110 knots (as of Warning Number 9)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery indicates that the convective cloud tops of cooled and the eye has become increasingly ragged over the past six hours.

TC 22S has slowed significantly, becoming nearly quasi stationary over the past six hours, trapped between a near-equatorial ridge to the northeast, and a transient subtropical ridge to the south, which is effectively limiting much further poleward movement.

While wind shear remains low 5-10 knots, upper-level divergence has is much weaker as the system becomes isolated for any tap into the deep westerlies. Upwelling of cooler waters, and the decrease in outflow are the limiting factors for any intensification in the near term.

TC Marian will accelerate southeastward within the gradient between the ridge and the aforementioned trough after 24 hours in response. As the system translates southeastward it will move over steadily cooler water, and encounter convergent flow aloft, leading to steady weakening through 120 hours.

 

 

Tropical Cyclone 23P (Niran)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/23P_020000sair.jpg

Sustained 45 knot winds…with gusts to 55 knots (as of Warning Number 5)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery indicates the system remains disorganized, with flaring convection displaced west of the partially exposed low level circulation center. surface observations from Bougainville Reef and Arlington Reef, as well as animated radar data from Cairns provided good clarification on the initial position.

The overall environment is weakly favorable, wind shear is low 5-10 knots from the east, and sea surface temperatures are very warm. However outflow pattern is somewhat disorganized with the primary outflow channel to the west and a weaker channel to the south.

Due to the relatively weak outflow the system is expected to only slowly intensify for the first 24 hours. By 48 hours, as the system starts to move closer to a shortwave trough, outflow will improve as it begins to tap into the deep westerlies, allowing for a faster rate of intensification…to a peak of 70 knots by 120 hours.

 

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Connect with us