CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 04W (Choi-wan) is located approximately 237 NM west-southwest of Kadena, AB
Eastern north Pacific
Here’s what the computer models are showing / this disturbance is being referred to as Invest 92E
A broad area of low pressure located about 500 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while it moves slowly to the west-northwest well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent
Tropical Cyclone 04W (Choi-wan)
Sustained 35 knot winds…with gusts to 45 knots (as of Warning Number 25)
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a heavily sheared convective structure with the low-level circulation center located just east of southern Taiwan.
The system resides in a marginally favorable environment with fair equatorward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures, and low (05-10 knot) wind shear from the northeast, along with the terrain interaction along the southern tip of Taiwan.
TD 04W will continue moving to the northeast along the sub-tropical ridge and interact with the baroclinic zone and begin to tap into the poleward outflow channel. The new outflow will allow for a slight intensification just before 04W moves over the cooler sea surface temperatures near the Ryuku Island chain…and start dissipating the system.
04W will encounter cooler sea surface temperatures by 24 hours, inhibiting any further development and completely dissipate the system by 36 hours, if not sooner.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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