CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 04W (Choi-wan) is located approximately 324 NM south-southwest of Taipei, Taiwan
Tropical Cyclone 02E (Blanca) is located approximately 585 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California
Eastern north Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 02E (Blanca)
BLANCA WEAKENS, VERY CLOSE TO BECOMING A REMNANT LOW…Advisory 18
What the computer models are showing
Blanca is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slightly faster motion toward the west is expected during the next few days.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Blanca is forecast to become a remnant low overnight or Friday morning, with its winds decreasing further during the next few days.
The remnant low is expected to dissipate early next week.
>>> A trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while it drifts west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent
Tropical Cyclone 04W (Choi-wan)
Sustained 35 knot winds…with gusts to 45 knots (as of Warning Number 22)
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a near fully-exposed low-level circulation with broad central convection remaining offset to the southwest.
The system resides in a marginal environment with good easterly and equatorward outflow, very warm sea surface temperatures, which are offset by moderate tostrong (25-30 knot) wind shear from the northeast.
TS 04W will track northeastward under the steering influence of the subtropical ridge. The system will remain at 35 knots as it rounds the ridge axis through the next 24 hours. By 36 hours, TS 04W will weaken to 30 knots due to increasing wind shear and land interaction from the rugged terrain of Taiwan.
The system will remain at 30 knots as it passes north of Kadena AB by 48 hours, as it continues tracking northeastward. Concurrently at 48 hours, TS 04W will undergo extra-tropical transition, which will be completed east of the Ryuku Islands, just south of Honshu, by 72 hours. There remains a distinct possibility that TS 04W will dissipate before 72 hours.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.