CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 05E (Enrique)…is located 80 miles northeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico
Eastern North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 05E (Enrique)
TINY ENRIQUE HANGING ON TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS WHILE MOVING INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
What the computer models are showing for Tropical Storm Enrique
Enrique is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so followed by a slight turn to the left.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Enrique is expected to weaken to a tropical depression tomorrow and dissipate on Thursday near the Baja California Peninsula.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area over southern portions of the Baja California Peninsula beginning tonight.
RAINFALL: Enrique is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across Sinola, western Durango and southern Chihuahua in western Mexico. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches are possible across the southern portions of Baja California Sur. Combined with the rain that had already fallen, these additional amounts may trigger new flash flooding and mudslides.
SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico, and portions of the Gulf of California and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 95W, which is located approximately 752 NM southeast of Kadena AB
Here’s was the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery reveals a consolidating low level circulation with flaring convection sheared to the southwest. Furthermore, there’s a compact area of 20 knot winds along the eastern semi-circle of the low level center.
Upper level analysis indicates that 95W is in a favorable environment for development with low to moderate wind shear (15-20 knots), good equatorial outflow, and warm sea
Global models are in good agreement that 95W will continue to track west-southwestward along a subtropical ridge to the east as it steadily intensifies before turning to a more west-northwestward track over the next 24-36 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18-23 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.
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