CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 04W (Choi-wan) is located approximately 72 NM south-southwest of Taipei, Taiwan
Tropical Cyclone 02E (Blanca) is located approximately 560 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California
Eastern north Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 02E (Blanca)
BLANCA LIKELY TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW ON THURSDAY…Advisory 14
What the computer models are showing
Blanca is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion, with some slight increase in forward speed, is expected through Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days, and Blanca is likely to degenerate into a remnant low on Thursday.
Tropical Cyclone 04W (Choi-wan)
Sustained 35 knot winds…with gusts to 45 knots (as of Warning Number 18)
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, TD 04W has become a bit more organized over the past six hours, with the radar data showing the convective banding to good effect. While the radar data is fairly conclusive, the satellite depiction still shows a rather disorganized structure, with moderate northerly wind shear and some mid-level dry air inhibiting convective development on the north side of the system, while a mass of flaring convection has developed to the west over the South China Sea.
Environmental conditions have remained weakly favorable for additional development, characterized by very warm sea surface temperatures, good equatorward and westward outflow and moderate (15-20 knot) wind shear.
Over the next 24 hours, TD 04W is forecast to continue tracking northwestward along the southwest periphery of the steering ridge, skirting the western coast of Luzon. during the same time frame, the aforementioned upper-level trough will dissipate, allowing for development of diffluent easterly flow aloft over top of the system, leading to a short period of intensification though 24 hours. The system is expected to reach a peak intensity of 35 knots by 12 hours under these slightly improved conditions.
By 36 hours, the system will have rounded the ridge axis and begin accelerating northeastward to the east of Taiwan. As it moves poleward it will encounter steadily increasing wind shear and convergent upper-level flow along the south side of a anticyclone, leading to steady weakening and ultimate dissipation no later than 72 hours as the system nears the southern Ryuku Islands.
There’s a second tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 93S, which is located approximately 44 NM east of Cocos Island, Australia
Here’s was the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery reveals a singular mass of deep convection obscuring a broad low level circulation, and an obtuse wind field with 30 knots displaced to the south-southwest,wrapping into an elongated trough shape.
Environmental analysis shows marginal conditions for development with strong poleward outflow, warm sea surface temperatures, and low (10-15 knot) wind shear over the system, offset by strong wind shear(>30 knots) downstream.
Numerical models are in agreement that 93S will track generally southeastward along a weak baroclinic boundary with a minimal window for intensification over the next 12-24 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is downgraded to low.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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