CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing
Eastern north Pacific
A broad area of low pressure has developed a couple hundred miles south-southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico. Although shower and thunderstorm activity has changed little in organization this evening, environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend while the system drifts north-northeastward. Heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of Central America and southern Mexico through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent
>>> A broad area of low pressure located about 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for some gradual development over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form by early next week while the system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 92W, which is located approximately 280 NM south of Hong Kong
Here’s was the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery reveals a broad low level circulation with convection displaced from the center and the radius of max winds extending to approximately 100 NM from the center, indicating that 92W is a monsoon depression at this time.
Upper level analysis indicates a marginally favorable environment with low (<15 knot) wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures…offset by a current lack of divergence aloft.
Global models are in good agreement that 92W will continue its track west-northwestward as it steadily consolidates and intensifies over the next 48 hours.
An upper level anticyclone to the north during this time period will begin to move east and reorient thus increasing divergent flow over the system allowing for further development.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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