CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 04W (Choi-wan) is located approximately 239 NM southeast of Manila, Philippines
Tropical Cyclone 02E (Blanca) is located approximately 570 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California
Eastern north Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 02E (Blanca)
BLANCA WEAKENING AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD…Advisory 9
What the computer models are showing
Blanca is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual slowdown and turn towards the west over the next several days.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days, and Blanca is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by Thursday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.
Tropical Cyclone 04W (Choi-wan)
Sustained 30 knot winds…with gusts to 40 knots (as of Warning Number 13)
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a small, exposed and increasingly disorganized low-level circulation, with a recent flare up of deep convection to the southwest of the center along the coast of Samar.
Environmental analysis reveals conditions inimical to development, with moderate (15-20 knot) wind shear, convergent flow and mid-level dry air…offsetting the good equatorward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures.
Over the next 36 hours, TD 04W is forecast to continue tracking northwestward, moving over northern Samar, southeastern Luzon, and the Palillo Islands, before making a final landfall along the eastern coast of northern Luzon just prior to 36 hours.
Once over the rugged terrain of northern Luzon, the rugged terrain will serve to disrupt the low level circulation, leading to a slow weakening trend. What remains of the low level center will emerge into the Luzon Strait around 48 hours and track northeastward into a break in the steering ridge.
However, increasing wind shear and convergent flow aloft will conspire to dissipate the system no later than 72 hours, as it merges with the southern end of a baroclinic zone east of Taiwan. Dissipation over northern Luzon, prior to reemergence over water, also remains a possibility.
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 90W, which is located approximately 278 NM west-southwest of Guam
Here’s was the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery reveals a broad area of turning obscured by flaring convection that is being sheared to the southwest. Furthermore, imagery shows the broad nature of 90W, with potential multiple centers of circulation embedded within the broader overall rotation.
Upper level analysis indicates 90W is in a favorable environment for development with low to moderate (10-20 knot) wind shear, good divergence aloft, and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models are in good agreement that 90W will continue to track generally northwestward and though overall conditions are favorable, the lack of a distinct, consolidated low level center at this time, will serve to limit the potential development.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.
There’s a second tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 93S, which is located approximately 273 NM west-northwest of Cocos Island, Australia
Here’s was the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery reveals formative banding and deep convection obscuring a broad low level circulation.
Environmental analysis shows favorable conditions for development with strong poleward outflow, low (10-15 knot) wind shear, and warm sea surface temperature.
Numerical models are in agreement that 93s will track generally southeastward along a weak baroclinic boundary with only a slight window for intensification over the next 12-24 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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