CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 06E…is located about 855 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California
Eastern North Pacific
FELICIA CONTINUES RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING…EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE OVERNIGHT
What the computer models are showing for this tropical cyclone
According to the NHC Advisory number 8…Felicia is moving toward the west near 9 mph. A gradual turn to the west-southwest is expected by Friday, and a westward motion is forecast this weekend.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected tonight, and Felicia is forecast to become a major hurricane overnight.
Some slow weakening is possible by this weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles.
Here’s what the models are showing for what’s being referred to as Invest 97E
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for gradual development during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend and move westward or west-northwestward at around 15 mph, a few hundred miles offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 98W, which is located approximately 593 NM south-southeast of Kadena AB
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery reveals a broad asymmetrical convective zone on the eastern boundary of the low level circulation. Despite the asymmetrical convective zone, 98W will consolidate and intensify.
Environmental analysis indicates favorable conditions for development with good outflow aloft, warm sea surface temperatures, and low (05-10 knot) wind shear.
Global and ensemble GFS has 98W intensifying within 18-36 hours and tracking west-northwest at a higher speed of advance to the Ryukyu Islands, while global and ensemble ECMWF have a gradual intensification pattern with a slower speed of advance to Kyushu, Japan. Current analysis indicates that ECMWF has been the more consistent model at handling the complexities of 98W over the last 48 hours.
In the upper levels, outflow is expected to gradually improve with decreasing wind shear over the next day, due to a favorable configuration of an upper low over western Japan and the upper low to the northeast.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.
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