CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 06E…is located about 700 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California
Eastern North Pacific
FELICIA A LITTLE STRONGER…EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON
Here’s what the computer models are showing for TS Felicia
According to the NHC advisory number 4…Felicia is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A gradual turn to the west is expected on Thursday, followed by a west-southwestward motion on Friday and Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely during the next couple of days, and Felicia is forecast to become a hurricane late tonight.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue well offshore of the coast of southern Mexico in association with a tropical wave.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico while the system moves westward or west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 98W, which is located approximately 484 NM south of west-northwest of Guam
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery reveals weak formative banding with associated areas of deep convection in the southeast quadrant of a low level circulation.
Environmental analysis indicates marginal conditions for development with good equatorward outflow aloft and warm sea surface temperatures, offset by moderate (15-20 knot) wind shear.
GFS and NAVGEM models have been consistent with formation of a tropical cyclone near this location for the past four model runs. Numerical models are in general agreement that invest 98W will track poleward as it quickly consolidates and intensifies over the next 24-48 hours.
In the upper levels, outflow is expected to gradually improve with decreasing wind shear over the next 1 to 2 days due to a favorable configuration of an upper low over western Japan and an upper low to the northeast.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 13-18 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium.
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