CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 08S (Danilo) which is located approximately 629 NM east-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius…in the South Indian Ocean
South Indian Ocean
Tropical Cyclone 08S (Danilo)
Here’s what the computer models are showing
Sustained 40 knot winds…with gusts to 50 knots (as of Warning Number 18)
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery reveals two large clusters of deep convection flaring around a broadly-defined low level circulation.
Analysis reveals a marginal environment with low 5-10 knot wind shear aloft, and sea surface temperatures…with fair outflow aloft.
The storm will begin tracking more southwestward towards Mauritius. A slight improvement in the outflow environment, combined with a low wind shear, should allow a slight intensification over the next 12 hours to 40 knots.
Near 36 hours, outflow should improve once more, briefly tapping into a poleward channel, which when combined with continued low wind shear, will result in a peak intensity of 45 knots through 48 hours.
Increasing wind shear, entrainment of drier air, and decreased outflow will combine by 72 hours, to begin weakening the system. After 96 hours, TC Danilo moves into an area of lower sea surface temperatures and convergent outflow aloft, beginning a rapid weakening trend through the end of the forecast period.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)