Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    27 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - N of Kissidougou, Faranah - Guinea

    15 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Bor, Jungoli - South Sudan

    18 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - Fiji region

    2 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Klyuchevskoy, Russia

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.8 - 35 km ENE of Villa Presidente Frei, Ñuñoa, Santiago, Chile, Chile

    9 hours ago WATCH

  • Wildfire - E of Norseman, Western Australia - Australia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.8 - Auckland Islands, New Zealand region

    3 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    3 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tropical Cyclone - Thirteen

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sheveluch, Russia

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 6.9 - South Shetland Islands

    6 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 25 km S of Colombia, Colombia

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Highsurf - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Highwind - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tsunami (Pacific Ocean) - South Shetland Islands - 7.0

    8 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tsunami (Caribbean Sea) - South Shetland Islands - 7.0

    8 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Shetland Islands

    8 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.4 - South Shetland Islands

    8 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tsunami (US ATL/Gulf Coast/CAN) - in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean - 7.3

    9 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - Tirua Commune, Chile

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    14 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sinabung, Indonesia

    16 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 37 km NNW of Finschhafen, Papua New Guinea

    16 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - south of the Fiji Islands

    16 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 37 km NW of Finschhafen, Papua New Guinea

    17 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - south of the Kermadec Islands

    18 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Manam, Papua New Guinea

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Raung, Indonesia

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.7 - 36 km NW of Finschhafen, Papua New Guinea

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northeastern Madagascar

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Pakistan

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Queensland, Australia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Wales, United Kingdom

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Eastern Sweden

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Switzerland

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Finland

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Paraguay

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northwestern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Zamboanga City, Philippines

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Java Province, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Aceh Province, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Philippines

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bujumbura Province, Burundi

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Southern Austria

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Northern Italy

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Slovenia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Alto Biobio Commune, Chile

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Santa Maria, Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Fort Polk, LA Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Southwestern, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Lufkin, TX Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern Kazakhstan

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Papua Province, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Sao Paulo, Brazil

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bolivia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Kenya

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Madagascar

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Central Asia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Merapi, Indonesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - La Soufriere, St Vincent and the Grenadines

    2 weeks ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Floods - Madeira, Portugal

    3 weeks ago WARNING

  • Chikungunya - Chad

    3 months ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
January 4, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 08S (Danilo)…which is located approximately 543 NM south-southeast of Diego Garcia, in the South Indian Ocean

 

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 08S (Danilo)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/08S_040000sair.jpg

Here’s what the computer models are showing

Sustained 50 knot winds…with gusts to 65 knots (as of Warning Number 11)

According to the JTWC…animated multispectral satellite imagery indicates that TC 08S has most likely completely absorbed the remnants of invest 93S over the previous 6 to 12 hours. The area of convection associated with the vorticity maxima that was invest 93S to the northwest, has dissipated over the past two hours, and convection has started to flare over the assessed low-level circulation center.

The system is tracking slowly southward along the western periphery of a weakening near-equatorial ridge. Environmental analysis reveals marginal conditions characterized by low  5-10 knot wind shear, warm waters and moderate equatorward outflow. Over the next 24 hours, TC 08S will continue tracking slowly southward through a weak steering environment. By 36 hours, the ridge will strengthen sufficiently to presume the dominate
steering role…pushing the system to a westward track through 96 hours.

In the extended forecast, a development of a deep mid-latitude trough east of Madagascar will result in a slight turn poleward by 120 hours. Numerical model guidance is in general agreement on the overall track scenario, although continues to show significant differences in the timing of the turn to the west and the along-track speed.

Near-term intensification is expected as the system consolidates after absorption of 93S, although then remains steady through 36 hours, limited by weak upper-level outflow. By 48 hours, slowly improving outflow, low wind shear and continued warm sea surface temperatures will support steady intensification though 120 hours.

 

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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