Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    46 minutes ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - N of Kissidougou, Faranah - Guinea

    16 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Bor, Jungoli - South Sudan

    19 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - Fiji region

    3 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Klyuchevskoy, Russia

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.8 - 35 km ENE of Villa Presidente Frei, Ñuñoa, Santiago, Chile, Chile

    9 hours ago WATCH

  • Wildfire - E of Norseman, Western Australia - Australia

    3 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.8 - Auckland Islands, New Zealand region

    4 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tropical Cyclone - Thirteen

    5 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Sheveluch, Russia

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 6.9 - South Shetland Islands

    7 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 25 km S of Colombia, Colombia

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Highsurf - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    8 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Highwind - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    8 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tsunami (Pacific Ocean) - South Shetland Islands - 7.0

    9 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tsunami (Caribbean Sea) - South Shetland Islands - 7.0

    9 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Shetland Islands

    9 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.4 - South Shetland Islands

    9 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tsunami (US ATL/Gulf Coast/CAN) - in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean - 7.3

    10 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - Tirua Commune, Chile

    14 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    15 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sinabung, Indonesia

    16 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 37 km NNW of Finschhafen, Papua New Guinea

    17 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - south of the Fiji Islands

    17 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 37 km NW of Finschhafen, Papua New Guinea

    18 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - south of the Kermadec Islands

    19 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Manam, Papua New Guinea

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Raung, Indonesia

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.7 - 36 km NW of Finschhafen, Papua New Guinea

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northeastern Madagascar

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Pakistan

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Queensland, Australia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Wales, United Kingdom

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Eastern Sweden

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Switzerland

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Finland

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Paraguay

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northwestern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Zamboanga City, Philippines

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Java Province, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Aceh Province, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Philippines

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bujumbura Province, Burundi

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Southern Austria

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Northern Italy

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Slovenia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Alto Biobio Commune, Chile

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Santa Maria, Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Fort Polk, LA Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Southwestern, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Lufkin, TX Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern Kazakhstan

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Papua Province, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Sao Paulo, Brazil

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bolivia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Kenya

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Madagascar

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Central Asia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Merapi, Indonesia

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - La Soufriere, St Vincent and the Grenadines

    2 weeks ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Floods - Madeira, Portugal

    3 weeks ago WARNING

  • Chikungunya - Chad

    3 months ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
January 2, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 08S (Danilo)…which is located approximately 246 NM south of Diego Garcia, in the South Indian Ocean

 

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 08S (Danilo)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/08S_030000sair.jpg

Here’s what the computer models are showing

Sustained 50 knot winds…with gusts to 65 knots (as of Warning Number 6)

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts weakening convection with a sharp eastern (upshear) boundary and partially exposed outer bands on the east  side of the larger circulation.

Upper-level analysis indicates the system lies in a generally marginal environment with moderate to high 20-25 knot wind shear, being offset by increasingly diffluent upper-level outflow, as the system begins to develop a secondary circulation aloft, strong enough to offset the impact from invest 93s, currently located approximately 365 NM to the southeast.

The sharp upshear boundary of the deep convection confirms that the system is still experiencing relatively high easterly shear from the outflow associated with invest 93S to the southeast.

TC 08S is forecast to begin Fujiwara interaction with invest 93S over the next 12 hours, with TC 08S continuing to track generally southeastward while 93S tracks west then north as it wraps into and becomes absorbed into TC 08S by 36 hours. After 36 hours, TC 08S will slow as it enters a weak steering environment. By 72 hours TC 08s accelerates westward through 120 hours.

TC 08S is expected to intensify slightly in the near-term as wind shear is forecast to decrease slightly while outflow remains relatively strong, peaking at 50 knots within 12 hours. As invest 93S begins to Fujiwara and become absorbed, TC 08s will weaken fairly
significantly to 40 knots. once the merging is complete and the system starts moving west in favorable environmental conditions of warm sea surface temperatures, low wind shear and moderate to strong upper-level outflow, steady intensification is expected…peaking at 70 knots by 120 hours.

 

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc21/SHEM/93S.INVEST/ir/geo/1km_bw/20210102.142000.SH932021.ahi.himawari8.Infrared-Gray.25kts.100p0.1p0.jpg

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 93S, which is located approximately 498 NM southeast of Diego Garcia

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows flaring convection wrapping around a broad low level circulation center.

Invest 93S is currently 350 NM east-southeast of TC 08S and has begun Fujiwara interaction.

Global models are in general agreement that invest 93S will accelerate westward and become absorbed in TC 08S…within the next 24-36 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is downgraded to low.

 

 

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc21/SHEM/97P.INVEST/ir/geo/1km_bw/20210102.142000.SH972021.ahi.himawari8.Infrared-Gray.25kts.100p0.1p0.jpg

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 97P, which is located approximately 59 NM northwest of Mornington Island, Australia

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows formative cloud banding wrapping into a consolidating low level circulation center…with flaring convection throughout.

Invest 97P is currently in a favorable environment for development, with strong outflow aloft, warm sea surface temperatures…and low to moderate 15-20 knot wind shear.

Global models are in general agreement that invest 97P will track east-southeastward, while steadily intensifying. Near 24 hours, the system is expected to make landfall, becoming nearly stationary and starting to dissipate.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25-30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.

 

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android wwwices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

 

Connect with us