CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 08S (Danilo)…which is located approximately 224 NM south of Diego Garcia, in the South Indian Ocean
South Indian Ocean
Tropical Cyclone 08S (Danilo)
Here’s what the computer models are showing
Sustained 40 knot winds…with gusts to 50 knots (as of Warning Number 2)
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts a consolidating system, with expansive deep convection flaring over the southern semi-circle.
Upper level analysis reveals generally favorable environment, with low to moderate wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures…and good poleward and equatorward outflow.
However, due to the proximity of invest 93S, approximately 550 NM east-southeast, equatorward outflow from 93S is impinging on the eastern quadrant of TC 08S, which is shearing core convection to the west. in general, there is high uncertainty and potential
fujiwhara with invest 93S lending low confidence to the jtwc track and intensity forecast.
The complex track scenario will also affect the intensity forecast, with only a slight intensification expected through 24 hours, then weakening as the two systems interact and merge.
After 72 hours, environmental conditions should improve with warm sea surface temperatures, improved poleward venting into an upper-level trough to the south, and low wind shear…which should allow TC 08S to intensify to a peak intensity of 60 knots 120 hours.
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 93S, which is located approximately 662 NM southeast of Diego Garcia
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows flaring convection wrapping around a broad low level circulation center.
Invest 93S is in a favorable environment for development, with warm sea surface temperatures, good outflow aloft…and low <15 knot wind shear.
Global models are in general agreement that invest 93S will track generally southwestward with minimal intensification over the next 24 hours, and may begin to interact…and be absorbed by TC 08S.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25-30 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.
There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 97P, which is located approximately 161 NM northwest of Mornington Island, Australia
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows pockets of convection beginning to consolidate around a low level circulation center.
Invest 97P is currently in a favorable environment for development, with poleward outflow aloft, very warm sea surface temperatures…and low to moderate 10-20 knot wind shear.
Global models are in general agreement that invest 97P will track southeastward over the Gulf of Carpentaria as it consolidates and strengthens
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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