Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Wildfire - N of Kissidougou, Faranah - Guinea

    15 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Bor, Jungoli - South Sudan

    18 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - Fiji region

    2 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Klyuchevskoy, Russia

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.8 - 35 km ENE of Villa Presidente Frei, Ñuñoa, Santiago, Chile, Chile

    8 hours ago WATCH

  • Wildfire - E of Norseman, Western Australia - Australia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.8 - Auckland Islands, New Zealand region

    2 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    3 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tropical Cyclone - Thirteen

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sheveluch, Russia

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 6.9 - South Shetland Islands

    6 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 25 km S of Colombia, Colombia

    11 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Highsurf - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Highwind - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tsunami (Pacific Ocean) - South Shetland Islands - 7.0

    7 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tsunami (Caribbean Sea) - South Shetland Islands - 7.0

    8 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Shetland Islands

    8 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.4 - South Shetland Islands

    8 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tsunami (US ATL/Gulf Coast/CAN) - in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean - 7.3

    9 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - Tirua Commune, Chile

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    14 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sinabung, Indonesia

    15 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 37 km NNW of Finschhafen, Papua New Guinea

    15 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - south of the Fiji Islands

    16 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 37 km NW of Finschhafen, Papua New Guinea

    17 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - south of the Kermadec Islands

    18 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Manam, Papua New Guinea

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Raung, Indonesia

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Tropical Cyclone - Eloise

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.7 - 36 km NW of Finschhafen, Papua New Guinea

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northeastern Madagascar

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Pakistan

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Queensland, Australia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Wales, United Kingdom

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Eastern Sweden

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Switzerland

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Finland

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Paraguay

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northwestern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Zamboanga City, Philippines

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Java Province, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Aceh Province, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Philippines

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bujumbura Province, Burundi

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Southern Austria

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Northern Italy

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Slovenia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Alto Biobio Commune, Chile

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Santa Maria, Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Fort Polk, LA Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Southwestern, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Lufkin, TX Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern Kazakhstan

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Papua Province, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Sao Paulo, Brazil

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bolivia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Kenya

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Madagascar

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Central Asia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Merapi, Indonesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - La Soufriere, St Vincent and the Grenadines

    2 weeks ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Floods - Madeira, Portugal

    3 weeks ago WARNING

  • Chikungunya - Chad

    3 months ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
January 1, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 08S (Danilo)…which is located approximately 224 NM south of Diego Garcia, in the South Indian Ocean

 

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 08S (Danilo)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/08S_020000sair.jpg

Here’s what the computer models are showing

Sustained 40 knot winds…with gusts to 50 knots (as of Warning Number 2)

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts a consolidating system, with expansive deep convection flaring over the southern semi-circle.

Upper level analysis reveals generally favorable environment, with low to moderate wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures…and good poleward and equatorward outflow.

However, due to the proximity of invest 93S, approximately 550 NM east-southeast, equatorward outflow from 93S is impinging on the eastern quadrant of TC 08S, which is shearing core convection to the west. in general, there is high uncertainty and potential
fujiwhara with invest 93S lending low confidence to the jtwc track and intensity forecast.
The complex track scenario will also affect the intensity forecast, with only a slight intensification expected through 24 hours, then weakening as the two systems interact and merge.

After 72 hours, environmental conditions should improve with warm sea surface temperatures, improved poleward venting into an upper-level trough to the south, and low wind shear…which should allow TC 08S to intensify to a peak intensity of 60 knots 120 hours.

 

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc21/SHEM/93S.INVEST/ir/geo/1km_bw/20210101.140000.SH932021.seviri.msg1.Infrared-Gray.25kts.100p0.1p0.jpg

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 93S, which is located approximately 662 NM southeast of Diego Garcia

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows flaring convection wrapping around a broad low level circulation center.

Invest 93S is in a favorable environment for development, with warm sea surface temperatures, good outflow aloft…and low <15 knot wind shear.

Global models are in general agreement that invest 93S will track generally southwestward with minimal intensification over the next 24 hours, and may begin to interact…and be absorbed by TC 08S.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25-30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.

 

 

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc21/SHEM/97P.INVEST/ir/geo/1km_bw/20210101.181000.SH972021.ahi.himawari8.Infrared-Gray.20kts.100p0.1p0.jpg

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 97P, which is located approximately 161 NM northwest of Mornington Island, Australia

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows pockets of convection beginning to consolidate around a low level circulation center.

Invest 97P is currently in a favorable environment for development, with poleward outflow aloft, very warm sea surface temperatures…and low to moderate 10-20 knot wind shear.

Global models are in general agreement that invest 97P will track southeastward over the Gulf of Carpentaria as it consolidates and strengthens

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

 

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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