Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    11 minutes ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    15 minutes ago WARNING

  • Flood - St. Louis, MO--IL Region, United States

    51 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Telimele, Kindia - Guinea

    31 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - NW of Chico, California - United States

    32 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Pinal County (Margo Fire), Arizona, United States

    32 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NW of Safford, Arizona - United States

    32 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    41 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - Alachua, FL Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SE of Chittagong - Bangladesh

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Tropical Cyclone - Twentyeight

    3 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Cyclone - Seroja

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Soufrière St. Vincent, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Excelsior Springs, MO Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 44 km SSW of Gongdanglegi Kulon, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 6.1 - 168 km SSW of Sarangani, Philippines

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 21 km S of Sumberpucung, Indonesia

    11 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - South Shetland Islands

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Floods - Southeastern, United States

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 195 km N of Madang, Papua New Guinea

    23 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    15 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Pacific Ocean

    17 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sinabung, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - New South Wales, Australia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Switzerland

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Yukon, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Loreto, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - British Columbia, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cusco, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Uruguay

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Quilotoa, Ecuador

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Bjaur, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, Pakistan

    2 days ago INFORMATION

  • Floods - Dominican Republic

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Valle Cannobina Municipality, Italy

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Guinea

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Madagascar

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern Africa

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - U.S. Virgin Islands

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Butembo, DRC

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    8 months ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
February 8, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 19S (Faraji) is located approximately 727 NM southeast of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone 19S (Faraji)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/92P_081500sair.jpg

Sustained 140 knot winds…with gusts to 170 knots (as of Warning Number 8) // Equivalent to a Super Typhoon

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts dense, axi-symmetric convection characteristic of an annular tropical cyclone, along with cooling cloud tops surrounding a well defined 20 NM diameter eye.

TC Faraji is tracking through a favorable environment characterized by low 5-10 knot wind shear and warm sea surface temperature that is offset by reduced outflow aloft.

This loss of previously robust poleward and equatorward outflow, coupled with the upwelling of cooler water due to the previously nearly stationary track motion, will prevent further intensifying, however the annular convective structure will allow for only moderate weakening in the near term to 100 knots by 48 hours.

As a ridge continues to build, it will begin to drive TC Faraji initially southward from 48 to 72 hours, southwestward from 72 to 96 hours, and then westward through the remainder of the forecast period.

Steady weakening will occur during this period as a result of continual moderate wind shear after 48 hours, coupled with convergent flow aloft and possibly entrainment of cool dry air from the east. By 120 hours, these conditions will weaken the system to 45 knots.

 

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc21/SHEM/92P.INVEST/ir/modis/1km/20210208.013000.aqua.modis.Infrared.tc2192PINVEST.covg100p0.unknown.res1km.jpg

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 92P, which is located approximately 145 NM east-northeast of Nadi, Fiji

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery reveals flaring, deep convection surrounding a broad area of low level circulation.

Environmental analysis shows a marginally favorable outflow aloft, and warm sea surface temperatures…offset slightly by moderate 15-20 knot wind shear.

Numerical models are converging on a southwestward track with subsequent consolidation into a tropical cyclone within the next 48-72 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 27-32 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.

 

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

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