Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    27 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    28 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    33 minutes ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    39 minutes ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    43 minutes ago WARNING

  • Flood - St. Louis, MO--IL Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Telimele, Kindia - Guinea

    58 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - NW of Chico, California - United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Pinal County (Margo Fire), Arizona, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NW of Safford, Arizona - United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - Alachua, FL Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SE of Chittagong - Bangladesh

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tropical Cyclone - Twentyeight

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Cyclone - Seroja

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Soufrière St. Vincent, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Excelsior Springs, MO Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 44 km SSW of Gongdanglegi Kulon, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 6.1 - 168 km SSW of Sarangani, Philippines

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 21 km S of Sumberpucung, Indonesia

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - South Shetland Islands

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Floods - Southeastern, United States

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 195 km N of Madang, Papua New Guinea

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    15 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Pacific Ocean

    18 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sinabung, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - New South Wales, Australia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Switzerland

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Yukon, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Loreto, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - British Columbia, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cusco, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Uruguay

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Quilotoa, Ecuador

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Bjaur, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, Pakistan

    2 days ago INFORMATION

  • Floods - Dominican Republic

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Valle Cannobina Municipality, Italy

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Guinea

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Madagascar

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern Africa

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - U.S. Virgin Islands

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Butembo, DRC

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    8 months ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
February 27, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 22S (Marian) is located approximately 405 NM southwest of Cocos Island…in the South Indian Ocean

 

Tropical Cyclone 22S (Marian)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/22S_280000sair.jpg

Sustained 80 knot winds…with gusts to 100 knots (as of Warning Number 5)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a slowly consolidating system, with an arc of strong convection present in the northern hemisphere, and much weaker convection present across the southern portion of the system, indicative of possible east-southeast wind shear.

The environment is relatively favorable with low to moderate 15-20 knot easterly wind shear, moderate equatorward and weak poleward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures. Over the next 36 hours, TC 22S is forecast to continue tracking to the southwest.

Between 36 and 48 hours, the system is expected to become nearly quasi-stationary as the ridge to the south reaches its maximum strength and moves to a position due south of the TC.

By 72 hours, the ridge to the south begins to move to the east and eventually dissipates ahead of  an approaching major shortwave trough, allowing for a stronger ridge to resume the dominate steering role, pushing the storm onto an accelerating southeasterly trajectory through the remainder of the forecast period.

TC Marian will steadily intensify over the next 36 hours, reaching a peak of 80 knots as wind shear decreases, and the upper-level outflow improves. After the system turns southeastward, sea surface temperatures will begin to cool and the outflow pattern becomes slightly less favorable…leading to a steady weakening trend through 120 hours.

 

 

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/small/tc21/SHEM/99P.INVEST/vapor/modis/1km/20210228.000000.SH992021.modis.terra.WV.25kts.86p1.1p0.jpg

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 99P, which is located approximately 184 NM east of Cairns, Australia

Here’s was the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows flaring disorganized deep convection associated with a broad ill-defined low level circulation center.

Image and animated radar imagery from the Willis Island radar show broad cyclonic turning with a weak low level circulation center.

Environmental analysis indicates a marginal environment, with strong easterly wind shear, offset by enhanced poleward outflow…and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models indicate a slow, meandering southwestward track over the next 2-days, with slow development.

Maximum sustained surface temperatures are estimated at 25-30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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