Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    10 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SE of Chittagong - Bangladesh

    29 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Soufrière St. Vincent, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

    50 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - St. Louis, MO--IL Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Telimele, Kindia - Guinea

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - NW of Chico, California - United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Pinal County (Margo Fire), Arizona, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NW of Safford, Arizona - United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    2 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Tropical Cyclone - Twentyeight

    5 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    5 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Cyclone - Seroja

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Excelsior Springs, MO Region, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 44 km SSW of Gongdanglegi Kulon, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 6.1 - 168 km SSW of Sarangani, Philippines

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 21 km S of Sumberpucung, Indonesia

    13 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - South Shetland Islands

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Floods - Southeastern, United States

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 195 km N of Madang, Papua New Guinea

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    16 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Pacific Ocean

    19 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sinabung, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - New South Wales, Australia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Switzerland

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Yukon, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Loreto, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - British Columbia, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cusco, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Uruguay

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Quilotoa, Ecuador

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Bjaur, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, Pakistan

    2 days ago INFORMATION

  • Floods - Dominican Republic

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Valle Cannobina Municipality, Italy

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Guinea

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Madagascar

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern Africa

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - U.S. Virgin Islands

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Butembo, DRC

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    8 months ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
February 26, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 22S (Marian) is located approximately 210 NM southwest of Cocos Island…in the South Indian Ocean

 

Tropical Cyclone 22S (Marian)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/22S_270000sair.jpg

Sustained 65 knot winds…with gusts to 80 knots (as of Warning Number 3)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows the system continued to consolidate as the central dense overcast feature obscures the low level circulation.

Upper level analysis indicates a favorable environment with low <15 knot wind shear and good equatorward outflow.

TC 22S reaches a peak intensity of 85 knots by 48 hours under favorable conditions. After 72 hours, an approaching mid-latitude trough and increasing wind shear from prevailing westerlies, begin a weakening trend for TC Marian…throughout the remainder of the forecast.

 

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc21/SHEM/99P.INVEST/ir/modis/1km_bw/20210227.005500.SH992021.modis.terra.Infrared-Gray.20kts.75p6.1p0.jpg

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 99P, which is located approximately 153 NM east-northeast of Cairns, Australia

Here’s was the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows flaring disorganized deep convection associated with a broad ill-defined low level circulation center.

Image and animated radar imagery from the Willis Island radar show broad cyclonic turning with a weak low level circulation center.

Environmental analysis indicates a marginal environment, with strong easterly wind shear, offset by enhanced poleward outflow…and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models indicate a slow, meandering southwestward track over the next 2-days, with slow development.

Maximum sustained surface temperatures are estimated at 20-25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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