Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Wildfire - SE of Chittagong - Bangladesh

    2 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    7 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Soufrière St. Vincent, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

    23 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    57 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    59 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - St. Louis, MO--IL Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Telimele, Kindia - Guinea

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - NW of Chico, California - United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Pinal County (Margo Fire), Arizona, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NW of Safford, Arizona - United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - Alachua, FL Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Tropical Cyclone - Twentyeight

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Cyclone - Seroja

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Excelsior Springs, MO Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 44 km SSW of Gongdanglegi Kulon, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 6.1 - 168 km SSW of Sarangani, Philippines

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 21 km S of Sumberpucung, Indonesia

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - South Shetland Islands

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Floods - Southeastern, United States

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 195 km N of Madang, Papua New Guinea

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    16 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Pacific Ocean

    18 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sinabung, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - New South Wales, Australia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Switzerland

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Yukon, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Loreto, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - British Columbia, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cusco, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Uruguay

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Quilotoa, Ecuador

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Bjaur, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, Pakistan

    2 days ago INFORMATION

  • Floods - Dominican Republic

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Valle Cannobina Municipality, Italy

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Guinea

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Madagascar

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern Africa

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - U.S. Virgin Islands

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Butembo, DRC

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    8 months ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
February 21, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 01W (Dujuan) is located 373 NM southeast of Manila, Philippines – Final Warning
Tropical Cyclone 21S (Guambe) is located 750 NM south-southeast of Europa Island – Final Warning

 

Tropical Cyclone 01W (Dujuan) Final Warning
 

Sustained 25 knot winds…with gusts to 35 knots (as of Warning Number 20)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows the deep, expansive, flaring convection ahead of the low level circulation has rapidly eroded and shrunk as it tracked across the ragged terrain of the central Philippine Islands.

Analysis indicates warm along-track sea surface temperatures in the Philippine Sea, and robust west and poleward outflow aloft. Relative wind shear is marginally conducive, due to the storm motion being in-phase with the mid and upper level wind flow.

TS Dujuan will continue tracking northwestward across the central Philippine Islands, including Leyte, Romblon, and Mindoro, before exiting into the South China Sea by 36 hours. Increased 25+ knot wind shear, combined with the frictional effects of the rugged terrain, will erode the TS to dissipation.

 

Tropical Cyclone 21S (Guambe) Final Warning

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_pregen_sat/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc21/SHEM/21S.GUAMBE/gmi/pct/20210222.012617.SH212021.gmi.GPM.89pct.55kts.18p6.1p0.jpg

Sustained 55 knot winds…with gusts to 70 knots (as of Warning Number 10)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows the system continued to gradually decay, as evidenced by warming central cloud tops and unraveling rain bands.

Environmental analysis indicates strong poleward outflow offset by increasing 20+ knot wind shear, and cooling sea surface temperatures.

TC 21S will continue on its current track for the remainder of the forecast. The marginal environment will sustain the intensity up to 12 hours…afterward, down to 40 knots by 24 hours.

Concurrently, the cyclone will begin extra-tropical transition by 12 hours, and transform into a storm-force cold core low, with an expansive wind field by 24 hours.

 

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc21/SHEM/94P.INVEST/gmi/pct/20210221.025124.SH942021.gmi.GPM.89pct.15kts.24p8.1p0.jpg

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 94P, which is located approximately 330 NM north-northeast of Suva, Fiji

Here’s was the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a very broad and elongated circulation embedded in the south pacific convergent zone, with disorganized area of flaring deep convection along the northern boundary.

Upper level analysis indicates low 05-10 knot wind shear and ample poleward outflow. Additionally, sea surface temperatures are conducive.

Global models indicate invest 94P will propagate southeastward along the trough and consolidate into a large circulation with an expansive wind field in 24-36 hours…approximately 200 NM south of American Samoa.

Maximum sustained surface temperatures are estimated at 10-15 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

 

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

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