Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    13 minutes ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    17 minutes ago WARNING

  • Flood - St. Louis, MO--IL Region, United States

    53 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Telimele, Kindia - Guinea

    32 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - NW of Chico, California - United States

    34 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Pinal County (Margo Fire), Arizona, United States

    34 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NW of Safford, Arizona - United States

    34 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    42 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - Alachua, FL Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SE of Chittagong - Bangladesh

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Tropical Cyclone - Twentyeight

    3 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Cyclone - Seroja

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Soufrière St. Vincent, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Excelsior Springs, MO Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 44 km SSW of Gongdanglegi Kulon, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 6.1 - 168 km SSW of Sarangani, Philippines

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 21 km S of Sumberpucung, Indonesia

    11 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - South Shetland Islands

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Floods - Southeastern, United States

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 195 km N of Madang, Papua New Guinea

    23 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    15 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Pacific Ocean

    17 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sinabung, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - New South Wales, Australia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Switzerland

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Yukon, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Loreto, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - British Columbia, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cusco, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Uruguay

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Quilotoa, Ecuador

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Bjaur, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, Pakistan

    2 days ago INFORMATION

  • Floods - Dominican Republic

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Valle Cannobina Municipality, Italy

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Guinea

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Madagascar

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern Africa

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - U.S. Virgin Islands

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Butembo, DRC

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    8 months ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
February 20, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 01W (Dujuan) is located 667 NM southeast of Manila, Philippines
Tropical Cyclone 21S (Guambe) is located 154 NM south-southeast of Maxixe, Mozambique

 

Tropical Cyclone 01W (Dujuan)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/01W_210000sair.jpg

Sustained 30 knot winds…with gusts to 40 knots (as of Warning Number 16)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a partly exposed, ragged, low level circulation, that is decoupled 100 NM+ southeastward from the main convection. A small ball of convection momentarily flared-up in between (30 NM to the northwest)…although has since waned.

Analysis indicates warm along-track sea surface temperatures, and strong westward and poleward outflow aloft. Additionally, the warm moist air ahead of the system is overrunning the cold northeasterly wind surge in the Philippine Sea. This combination is fueling the deep and expansive main convection, even though it is displaced by high 30 knot southeasterly wind shear.

TD 01W will track more northwestward as the steering ridge to the northeast builds, making landfall over Samar, Philippines, after 30 hours. As the storm motion becomes more in-phase with the upper level wind flow, the wind shear will relax a bit, and may allow a slight intensification to 35 knots by 12 hours.

Afterward, increased relative wind shear, as the TD interacts with the cold northeasterly wind surge, will weaken the TD to 30 knots by 24 hours. Thereafter, the addition of land interaction to the high wind shear will erode the TD to dissipation by 48 hours, possibly sooner.

 

Tropical Cyclone 21S (Guambe)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/21S_210000sair.jpg

Sustained 65 knot winds…with gusts to 80 knots (as of Warning Number 8)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a pinhole eye even as the central convection continued to warm and feeder bands unraveled.

Environmental analysis indicates a favorable environment with low 10-15 knot wind shear, good poleward outflow aloft, and warm sea surface temperatures.

TC 21S will maintain its intensity over the next 12 hours. Afterward, it will track and accelerate southeastward. Initial exposure to the strong mid-latitude westerlies will significantly improve poleward outflow, fueling a secondary intensification to a peak of 75 knots by 36 hours.

Afterward, increasing wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures will gradually erode the system down to 45 knots by 72 hours. Concurrently, by 48 hours, TC Guambe will commence extra-tropical transition, as it becomes a storm-force  low by 72 hours.

 

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

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