Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    8 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Soufrière St. Vincent, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

    22 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    56 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    58 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - St. Louis, MO--IL Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Telimele, Kindia - Guinea

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - NW of Chico, California - United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Pinal County (Margo Fire), Arizona, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NW of Safford, Arizona - United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - Alachua, FL Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SE of Chittagong - Bangladesh

    3 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tropical Cyclone - Twentyeight

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Cyclone - Seroja

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Excelsior Springs, MO Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 44 km SSW of Gongdanglegi Kulon, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 6.1 - 168 km SSW of Sarangani, Philippines

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 21 km S of Sumberpucung, Indonesia

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - South Shetland Islands

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Floods - Southeastern, United States

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 195 km N of Madang, Papua New Guinea

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    16 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Pacific Ocean

    18 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sinabung, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - New South Wales, Australia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Switzerland

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Yukon, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Loreto, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - British Columbia, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cusco, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Uruguay

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Quilotoa, Ecuador

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Bjaur, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, Pakistan

    2 days ago INFORMATION

  • Floods - Dominican Republic

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Valle Cannobina Municipality, Italy

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Guinea

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Madagascar

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern Africa

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - U.S. Virgin Islands

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Butembo, DRC

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    8 months ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
February 19, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 01W (Dujuan) is located 134 NM west-northwest of Sonsorol, Palau
Tropical Cyclone 21S (Guambe) is located 300 NM southwest of Europa Island

 

Tropical Cyclone 01W (Dujuan)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/01W_200000sair.jpg

Sustained 35 knot winds…with gusts to 45 knots (as of Warning Number 12)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows the convective mass that was originally thought to be associated with the low level circulation center, is now revealed to be displaced well to the northwest due to the strong east-southeasterly wind shear.

Environmental and satellite analysis shows that the strong 20-25 knot easterly wind shear has taken its toll, and the upper and lower-levels of the system have now decoupled. While poleward outflow remains robust and sea surface temperatures remain warm, the wind shear is just too strong to offset.

TS 01W is forecast to make landfall along the extreme northeast coast of Mindanao between 36 and 48 hours, then track over the central Philippine Islands and lying along the south coast of Mindoro by 72 hours. The system is not expected to undergo any additional intensification and will steadily weaken through 72 hours, due to the persistent easterly wind shear, and terrain interaction.

Once the system emerges into the South China Sea, it will encounter a much cooler and drier air mass, and convergent upper-level flow…which will lead to dissipation by 120 hours.

 

Tropical Cyclone 21S (Guambe)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/21S_200000sair.jpg

Sustained 75 knot winds…with gusts to 90 knots (as of Warning Number 6)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a rapidly consolidating and intensifying system with a small, compact core of deep convection and a disorganized, elongated and cloud filled eye feature. Microwave images depicted a very compact core of deep convection and a very well defined, small eye and spiral bands wrapping into the low level circulation center.

Environmental analysis indicates conditions favorable for additional intensification with low 5-10 knot wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and robust equatorward and quickly improving poleward outflow, which is beginning to tap into mid-latitude westerlies to the south.

The system is forecast to continue intensifying to a peak of 95 knots by 36 hours under favorable environmental conditions. TC 21S will start extra-tropical transition shortly after 48 hours, as it begins to interact with the mid latitude westerlies. TC Guambe is forecast to complete transition to a hurricane force extra-tropical low by 72 hours, as it rapidly moves southeastward.

 

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

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