Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    8 minutes ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    12 minutes ago WARNING

  • Flood - St. Louis, MO--IL Region, United States

    48 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Telimele, Kindia - Guinea

    27 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - NW of Chico, California - United States

    28 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Pinal County (Margo Fire), Arizona, United States

    29 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NW of Safford, Arizona - United States

    29 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    37 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    57 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - Alachua, FL Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SE of Chittagong - Bangladesh

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Tropical Cyclone - Twentyeight

    3 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Cyclone - Seroja

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Soufrière St. Vincent, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Excelsior Springs, MO Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 44 km SSW of Gongdanglegi Kulon, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 6.1 - 168 km SSW of Sarangani, Philippines

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 21 km S of Sumberpucung, Indonesia

    11 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - South Shetland Islands

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Floods - Southeastern, United States

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 195 km N of Madang, Papua New Guinea

    23 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    15 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Pacific Ocean

    17 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sinabung, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - New South Wales, Australia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Switzerland

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Yukon, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Loreto, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - British Columbia, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cusco, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Uruguay

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Quilotoa, Ecuador

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Bjaur, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, Pakistan

    2 days ago INFORMATION

  • Floods - Dominican Republic

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Valle Cannobina Municipality, Italy

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Guinea

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Madagascar

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern Africa

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - U.S. Virgin Islands

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Butembo, DRC

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    8 months ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
February 18, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 01W (Dujuan) is located 747 NM southeast of Manila, Philippines
Tropical Cyclone 21S (Guambe) is located 181 NM west-southwest of Europa Island

 

Tropical Cyclone 01W (Dujuan)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/01W_190000sair.jpg

Sustained 45 knot winds…with gusts to 55 knots (as of Warning Number 8)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a fully exposed, well-defined low level circulation center, with flaring deep convection with overshooting tops sheared to the west of the low level center.

Upper-level analysis indicates a marginal environment with moderate 15-20 knot easterly wind shear offset by robust diffluent poleward outflow. Sea surface temperatures remain conducive. TS 01W is moving slowly westward through the next 36 hours…in a generally weak steering pattern. Thereafter, the storm will turn more west-northwestward through 72 hours.

Landfall is expected in near 60 hours along the far northeast coast of Mindanao. Numerical model guidance is in fair agreement through 48 hours, with increasing uncertainty by 72 hours.

Wind shear is currently dominating the system. However, this wind shear is expected to weaken slightly over the next day or so, which will allow the system to reestablish core convection, enabling a slow although steady intensification to a peak of 50 knots by 48 hours.

By 72 hours the system is expected to be in the Bohol Sea, and will track northwestward over the major islands of the southwest Philippines, reemerging into the northern Sulu Sea by 96 hours, and into the South China Sea before 120 hours. The combined effects of terrain interaction, increasing wind shear, decreased upper-level outflow and the entrainment of drier air…will weaken the system to 25 knots by 120 hours.

 

Tropical Cyclone 21S (Guambe)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/21S_181800sair.jpg

Sustained 55 knot winds…with gusts to 70 knots (as of Warning Number 3)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a steadily improving convective signature with weak cyclonic banding features becoming evident within the central dense overcast, which is obscuring the low level circulation center.

Environmental analysis indicates favorable conditions, with low 5-10 knot wind shear, moderate to strong, nearly radial outflow and warm sea surface temperatures. TC 21S is currently ensconced between a building subtropical ridge center over northern Madacasgar and a secondary ridge center over northern South Africa, resulting in slow movement southward.

TC  21S is expected to steadily intensify under favorable conditions to a peak of 85 knots by 48 hours, then maintain intensity through 72 hours. Thereafter, increasing wind shear will offset the strong poleward outflow, leading to slow weakening. The system will begin extratropical transition by 96 hours, and become a storm-force extratropical system by 120 hours.

All models concur on the overall scenario although display significant cross track uncertainty though 48 hours, with navgem and the coamps-tc taking the system much closer to the coast of Mozambique, and the gfs and ecmwf members keeping the system well offshore in the Mozambique Channel.

 

 

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

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