Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    12 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SE of Chittagong - Bangladesh

    7 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Soufrière St. Vincent, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

    28 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - St. Louis, MO--IL Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Telimele, Kindia - Guinea

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - NW of Chico, California - United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Pinal County (Margo Fire), Arizona, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NW of Safford, Arizona - United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Alachua, FL Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Tropical Cyclone - Twentyeight

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Cyclone - Seroja

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Excelsior Springs, MO Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 44 km SSW of Gongdanglegi Kulon, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 6.1 - 168 km SSW of Sarangani, Philippines

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 21 km S of Sumberpucung, Indonesia

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - South Shetland Islands

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Floods - Southeastern, United States

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 195 km N of Madang, Papua New Guinea

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    16 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Pacific Ocean

    18 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sinabung, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - New South Wales, Australia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Switzerland

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Yukon, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Loreto, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - British Columbia, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cusco, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Uruguay

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Quilotoa, Ecuador

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Bjaur, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, Pakistan

    2 days ago INFORMATION

  • Floods - Dominican Republic

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Valle Cannobina Municipality, Italy

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Guinea

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Madagascar

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern Africa

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - U.S. Virgin Islands

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Butembo, DRC

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    8 months ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
February 17, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 01W is located 419 NM east of Davao, Philippines
Tropical Cyclone 21S (Guambe) is located 151 NM west of Europa Island

 

Tropical Cyclone 01W

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/01W_180000sair.jpg

Sustained 35 knot winds…with gusts to 45 knots (as of Warning Number 4)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows that the system continued to consolidate, as formative rain bands wrapped tighter into a partly exposed low level circulation, as the central convection is offset northwestward.

Analysis indicates a favorable environment with low to moderate 10-20 knot wind shear, robust westward and poleward upper level outflow that is providing ample ventilation to the convection, and warm along-track sea surface temperatures in the Philippine Sea.

TD 01W will track more northwestward for the duration of the forecast under the steering influence of the subtropical ridge. The favorable environment will promote steady intensification to a peak of 60 knots by 72 hours…as the system approaches Northern Mindanao.

After 72 hours, TD 01W will track across the Philippine  Archipelago, and by 120 hours, will reach the South China Sea off the island of Mindoro. Interaction with the islands and increased wind shear will erode the system down to 35 knots by 120 hours.

 

Tropical Cyclone 21S (Guambe)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/21S_171800sair.jpg

Sustained 45 knot winds…with gusts to 55 knots (as of Warning Number 1)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a consolidating system with a developing central
dense overcast feature obscuring the low-level circulation center.

Analysis indicates a marginally favorable conditions with low to moderate 10-20 knot wind shear,  offset by near radial outflow and warm sea surface temperatures.

TC 21S is forecast to track southward to south-southwestward through 72 hours, then after 72 hours, the system will recurve southeastward to east-southeastward.

TC 21S is expected to gradually intensify through 48 hours, with a peak intensity of 80 knots by 48 hours. Steady weakening will occur after 72hours, as wind shear increases and sea surface temperatures cool.

 

 

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

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