Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    13 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SE of Chittagong - Bangladesh

    18 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Soufrière St. Vincent, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

    39 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - St. Louis, MO--IL Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Telimele, Kindia - Guinea

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - NW of Chico, California - United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Pinal County (Margo Fire), Arizona, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NW of Safford, Arizona - United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Alachua, FL Region, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Tropical Cyclone - Twentyeight

    5 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    5 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Cyclone - Seroja

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Excelsior Springs, MO Region, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 44 km SSW of Gongdanglegi Kulon, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 6.1 - 168 km SSW of Sarangani, Philippines

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 21 km S of Sumberpucung, Indonesia

    13 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - South Shetland Islands

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Floods - Southeastern, United States

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 195 km N of Madang, Papua New Guinea

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    16 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Pacific Ocean

    19 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sinabung, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - New South Wales, Australia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Switzerland

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Yukon, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Loreto, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - British Columbia, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cusco, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Uruguay

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Quilotoa, Ecuador

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Bjaur, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, Pakistan

    2 days ago INFORMATION

  • Floods - Dominican Republic

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Valle Cannobina Municipality, Italy

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Guinea

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Madagascar

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern Africa

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - U.S. Virgin Islands

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Butembo, DRC

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    8 months ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
February 13, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 19S (Faraji) is located approximately 1269 NM east of Port Louis, Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone 19S (Faraji)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/19S_131800sair.jpg

Sustained 35 knot winds…with gusts to 45 knots (as of Warning Number 18)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery continues to show the effects of persistent northwesterly shear, which is displacing flaring convection to the southeast of the partially exposed low level circulation center.

TC 19S is tracking west along the northern periphery of a low to mid-level subtropical ridge entrenched to the south. As the ridge builds in over the next 24 hours, TC 19S is forecast to take on a slightly more northwestward track through the remainder of the forecast period.

The overall environment has become increasingly unfavorable, with moderate 15-20 knot northwesterly wind shear and convergent upper-level flow from a deep upper-level low to the
southwest, impinging the secondary circulation.

As the system continues moving west it will encounter increasingly drier air in the low to mid-levels, which combined with the persistent convergent northwesterly flow aloft, will lead to steady weakening and ultimate dissipation by 72 hours.

 

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc21/WPAC/91W.INVEST/ir/geo/1km_bw/20210213.141000.WP912021.ahi.himawari-8.Infrared-Gray.15kts.100p0.1p0.jpg

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 91W, which is located approximately 380 NM southwest of Yap

Here’s was the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows disorganized banding with flaring convection in the eastern semi-circle wrapping into a weak, slightly elongated low level circulation center.

Upper level analysis shows invest 91W in a favorable environment for potential tropical development, with low 10-15 knot wind shear, good westward and poleward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in agreement that Invest 91W will track westward with possible consolidation over the next 5-days.

Maximum sustained surface temperatures are estimated at 10-15 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

 

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

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