Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    9 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SE of Chittagong - Bangladesh

    28 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Soufrière St. Vincent, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

    48 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - St. Louis, MO--IL Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Telimele, Kindia - Guinea

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - NW of Chico, California - United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Pinal County (Margo Fire), Arizona, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NW of Safford, Arizona - United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    2 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Tropical Cyclone - Twentyeight

    5 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    5 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Cyclone - Seroja

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Excelsior Springs, MO Region, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 44 km SSW of Gongdanglegi Kulon, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 6.1 - 168 km SSW of Sarangani, Philippines

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 21 km S of Sumberpucung, Indonesia

    13 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - South Shetland Islands

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Floods - Southeastern, United States

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 195 km N of Madang, Papua New Guinea

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    16 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Pacific Ocean

    19 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sinabung, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - New South Wales, Australia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Switzerland

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Yukon, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Loreto, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - British Columbia, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cusco, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Uruguay

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Quilotoa, Ecuador

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Bjaur, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, Pakistan

    2 days ago INFORMATION

  • Floods - Dominican Republic

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Valle Cannobina Municipality, Italy

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Guinea

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Madagascar

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern Africa

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - U.S. Virgin Islands

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Butembo, DRC

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    8 months ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
February 11, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 19S (Faraji) is located approximately 884 NM southeast of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone 19S (Faraji)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/19S_111800sair.jpg

Sustained 80 knot winds…with gusts to 100 knots (as of Warning Number 14)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows spiral bands of deep convection that wrapping into the low level circulation center.

TC Faraji is tracking southwestward and through a marginal environment, characterized by warm sea surface temperatures, and moderate poleward outflow…offset by moderate 10-15 knot wind shear (vws) and convergent flow along the northwestern periphery of the system. As the steering ridge continues to build, it will reposition farther west and begin to drive the storm generally westward after 24 hours.

Moderate wind shear, coupled with periods of convergent flow aloft will weaken the system to 45 knots by 72 hours. Thereafter, the steering ridge will reposition and begin to steer the system west-northwestward. Low 5-10 knot wind shear and continued warm sea surface temperatures after 72 hours will lead to gradual intensification to 50 knots by 120 hours.

 

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc21/SHEM/93S.INVEST/ir/geo/1km_bw/20210212.023000.SH932021.seviri.msg-4.Infrared-Gray.25kts.100p0.1p0.jpg

There’s a sub-tropical depression being referred to as Invest 93S, which is located approximately 92 NM north of Maxixe, Mozambique

Here’s was the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery show fragmented deep convective banding to the east, wrapping into the low level circulation center.

Environmental analysis shows an overall favorable environment with low 10-20 knot wind shear, burgeoning poleward aloft, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Numerical models generally agree that Invest 93S will track west-southwestward and encounter land within the next 24-48 hours…with minimal overall development.

Maximum sustained surface temperatures are estimated at 20-25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.

 

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

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