Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    37 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - N of Kissidougou, Faranah - Guinea

    15 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Bor, Jungoli - South Sudan

    19 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - Fiji region

    2 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Klyuchevskoy, Russia

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.8 - 35 km ENE of Villa Presidente Frei, Ñuñoa, Santiago, Chile, Chile

    9 hours ago WATCH

  • Wildfire - E of Norseman, Western Australia - Australia

    3 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.8 - Auckland Islands, New Zealand region

    3 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    3 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tropical Cyclone - Thirteen

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sheveluch, Russia

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 6.9 - South Shetland Islands

    6 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 25 km S of Colombia, Colombia

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Highsurf - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Highwind - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tsunami (Pacific Ocean) - South Shetland Islands - 7.0

    8 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tsunami (Caribbean Sea) - South Shetland Islands - 7.0

    8 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Shetland Islands

    9 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.4 - South Shetland Islands

    9 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tsunami (US ATL/Gulf Coast/CAN) - in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean - 7.3

    9 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - Tirua Commune, Chile

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    15 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sinabung, Indonesia

    16 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 37 km NNW of Finschhafen, Papua New Guinea

    16 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - south of the Fiji Islands

    17 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 37 km NW of Finschhafen, Papua New Guinea

    18 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - south of the Kermadec Islands

    18 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Manam, Papua New Guinea

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Raung, Indonesia

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.7 - 36 km NW of Finschhafen, Papua New Guinea

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northeastern Madagascar

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Pakistan

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Queensland, Australia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Wales, United Kingdom

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Eastern Sweden

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Switzerland

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Finland

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Paraguay

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northwestern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Zamboanga City, Philippines

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Java Province, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Aceh Province, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Philippines

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bujumbura Province, Burundi

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Southern Austria

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Northern Italy

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Slovenia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Alto Biobio Commune, Chile

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Santa Maria, Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Fort Polk, LA Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Southwestern, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Lufkin, TX Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern Kazakhstan

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Papua Province, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Sao Paulo, Brazil

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bolivia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Kenya

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Madagascar

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Central Asia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Merapi, Indonesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - La Soufriere, St Vincent and the Grenadines

    2 weeks ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Floods - Madeira, Portugal

    3 weeks ago WARNING

  • Chikungunya - Chad

    3 months ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
December 25, 2020
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 07S (Chalane)…is located approximately 274 NM north-northwest of St. Denis, La Reunion Island

 

South Indian Ocean

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc21/SHEM/07S.CHALANE/ir/geo/1km_bw/20201225.141500.SH072021.seviri.msg4.Infrared-Gray.35kts.100p0.1p0.jpg

Here’s what the computer models are showing

Sustained 35 knot winds…with gusts to 45 knots (as of Warning Number 3)

According to the JTWC, depicts a disorganized convective signature, with deep convection displaced to the south of the assessed low level circulation center. Convection has weakened over the previous six hours…likely in response to the diurnal cycle.

Overall the environment is marginally supportive for develop, with low 5-10 knots wind shear, moderate poleward and westward outflow and warm sea water temperatures. Upper-level outflow has decreased somewhat since the previous warning, as an upper-level trough to the south has moved to the east…curtailing the strong poleward outflow seen earlier.

TC Chalane is expected to make landfall along the northeast coast of Madagascar near 48 hours, then track southwestward through 72 hours as the system crosses the rugged terrain of central Madagascar and weakens, it will take a sharper south-southwest turn and emerge back over water in the Mozambique channel by 96 hours.

Thereafter, TC 07S will move onto a more westward track through 120 hours. Due to the presence of somewhat drier mid-level air to the north and northerly wind shear, the system has still failed to fully consolidate and maintain a strong convective  core.

Mid-level moisture is expected to increase over the next 24 hours, while wind shear slackens, allowing the system to intensify to 45 knots prior to landfall. After reemerging into the Mozambique channel, warm sea surface temperatures, combined with low wind shear and more robust outflow will allow for re-intensification.

 

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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