Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - Fiji region

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Klyuchevskoy, Russia

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.8 - 35 km ENE of Villa Presidente Frei, Ñuñoa, Santiago, Chile, Chile

    8 hours ago WATCH

  • Wildfire - E of Norseman, Western Australia - Australia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.8 - Auckland Islands, New Zealand region

    2 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    2 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - N of Kissidougou, Faranah - Guinea

    15 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Bor, Jungoli - South Sudan

    18 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tropical Cyclone - Thirteen

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sheveluch, Russia

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 6.9 - South Shetland Islands

    6 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 25 km S of Colombia, Colombia

    11 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Highsurf - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Highwind - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tsunami (Pacific Ocean) - South Shetland Islands - 7.0

    7 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tsunami (Caribbean Sea) - South Shetland Islands - 7.0

    7 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Shetland Islands

    8 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.4 - South Shetland Islands

    8 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tsunami (US ATL/Gulf Coast/CAN) - in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean - 7.3

    9 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - Tirua Commune, Chile

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    14 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sinabung, Indonesia

    15 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 37 km NNW of Finschhafen, Papua New Guinea

    15 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - south of the Fiji Islands

    16 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 37 km NW of Finschhafen, Papua New Guinea

    17 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - south of the Kermadec Islands

    18 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Manam, Papua New Guinea

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Raung, Indonesia

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Tropical Cyclone - Eloise

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.7 - 36 km NW of Finschhafen, Papua New Guinea

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northeastern Madagascar

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Pakistan

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Queensland, Australia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Wales, United Kingdom

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Eastern Sweden

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Switzerland

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Finland

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Paraguay

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northwestern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Zamboanga City, Philippines

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Java Province, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Aceh Province, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Philippines

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bujumbura Province, Burundi

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Southern Austria

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Northern Italy

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Slovenia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Alto Biobio Commune, Chile

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Santa Maria, Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Fort Polk, LA Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Southwestern, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Lufkin, TX Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern Kazakhstan

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Papua Province, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Sao Paulo, Brazil

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bolivia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Kenya

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Madagascar

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Central Asia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Merapi, Indonesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - La Soufriere, St Vincent and the Grenadines

    2 weeks ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Floods - Madeira, Portugal

    3 weeks ago WARNING

  • Chikungunya - Chad

    3 months ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
December 20, 2020
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 26W (Krovanh)is located 414 NM east of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

 

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 26W (Krovanh)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/26W_210000sair.jpg

Here’s what the computer models are showing

Sustained 30 knot winds…with gusts to 40 knots (as of Warning Number 5)

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a highly sheared, asymmetric, and disorganized system, with multiple exposed, low level vortices wrapping around the broader circulation center, and limited flaring convection displaced north and west of the low-level circulation center.

Environmental conditions are marginally favorable for development, with moderate to high 20-25 knot wind shear, very warm sea surface temperatures, and strong divergent, poleward outflow aloft. While the overall environment is supportive of additional development, the high wind shear is currently inhibiting the consolidation of the core, as
reflected by the sheared nature of the convection.

TD 26W is expected to continue tracking generally west-southwestward through 48 hours. Slow intensification is forecast through 24 hours as the winds associated with a northeast surge flow, begin to wrap around the southern side of the center, and robust divergent outflow aloft offsets moderate wind shear.

A slight reorientation of the upper-level flow pattern will lead to more convergent outflow aloft, combined with persistent moderate wind shear, decreasing sea surface temperatures, and a separation from the northeast surge flow, will lead to a weakening trend from 36 hours through the remainder of the forecast period.

As the system begins to weaken, it will also shift to a more westward track as it comes under the steering influence of the lower-level flow. Numerical model guidance is in good agreement with the overall track forecast scenario, with small spread through 48 hours. Beyond 48 hours, model guidance shows increasing uncertainty, with the navgem, ukmet and gfs showing a track over far southern Vietnam, which the remainder of track guidance keeps the center of circulation well offshore southern Vietnam.

 

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_pregen_sat/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc21/SHEM/05P.YASA/ir/geo/1km_bw/20201220.1410.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.05PYASA.50kts-985mb-233S-1781W.100pc.jpg

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Remnants of TC 05P, which is located approximately 382 NM south-southeast of Suva, Fiji

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, the system is currently classified as a subtropical storm, generally characterized as having both tropical and mid-latitude cyclone features. animated enhanced infrared imagery depicts a fully exposed low level circulation with an area of convection being sheared to the south-southeast.

The system is in an unfavorable environment characterized by high 20-30 knot wind shear and cool sea surface temperatures.

Global models generally agree that the system will slowly track south-southwest and slowly dissipate.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 40-45 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

 

South Indian Ocean

 

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc21/SHEM/95S.INVEST/tc_ssmis/geoir/20201220.1356.f17.x.geoir.95SINVEST.15kts-1010mb-113S-640E.052pc.jpg

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 95S, which is located approximately 601 NM northeast of Mauritius

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a broad area of turning with flaring convection scattered throughout.

Invest 95S is in a favorable environment for development, with warm sea surface temperatures, moderate outflow aloft, and low to moderate 15-20 knot wind shear.

Global models are in general agreement showing invest 95S will continue to consolidate as it tracks southwestward over the next several days.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

 

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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