Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    32 minutes ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    58 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - N of Kissidougou, Faranah - Guinea

    16 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Bor, Jungoli - South Sudan

    19 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - Fiji region

    3 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Klyuchevskoy, Russia

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.8 - 35 km ENE of Villa Presidente Frei, Ñuñoa, Santiago, Chile, Chile

    9 hours ago WATCH

  • Wildfire - E of Norseman, Western Australia - Australia

    3 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.8 - Auckland Islands, New Zealand region

    3 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tropical Cyclone - Thirteen

    5 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Sheveluch, Russia

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 6.9 - South Shetland Islands

    7 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 25 km S of Colombia, Colombia

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Highsurf - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    8 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Highwind - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    8 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tsunami (Pacific Ocean) - South Shetland Islands - 7.0

    8 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tsunami (Caribbean Sea) - South Shetland Islands - 7.0

    9 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Shetland Islands

    9 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.4 - South Shetland Islands

    9 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tsunami (US ATL/Gulf Coast/CAN) - in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean - 7.3

    10 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - Tirua Commune, Chile

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    15 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sinabung, Indonesia

    16 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 37 km NNW of Finschhafen, Papua New Guinea

    16 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - south of the Fiji Islands

    17 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 37 km NW of Finschhafen, Papua New Guinea

    18 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - south of the Kermadec Islands

    19 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Manam, Papua New Guinea

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Raung, Indonesia

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.7 - 36 km NW of Finschhafen, Papua New Guinea

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northeastern Madagascar

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Pakistan

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Queensland, Australia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Wales, United Kingdom

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Eastern Sweden

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Switzerland

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Finland

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Paraguay

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northwestern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Zamboanga City, Philippines

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Java Province, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Aceh Province, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Philippines

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bujumbura Province, Burundi

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Southern Austria

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Northern Italy

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Slovenia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Alto Biobio Commune, Chile

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Santa Maria, Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Fort Polk, LA Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Southwestern, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Lufkin, TX Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern Kazakhstan

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Papua Province, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Sao Paulo, Brazil

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bolivia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Kenya

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Madagascar

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Central Asia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Merapi, Indonesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - La Soufriere, St Vincent and the Grenadines

    2 weeks ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Floods - Madeira, Portugal

    3 weeks ago WARNING

  • Chikungunya - Chad

    3 months ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
December 17, 2020
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 05P (Yasa)is located 154 NM east of Suva, Fiji

 

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 05P (Yasa)

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_pregen_sat/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc21/SHEM/05P.YASA/ir/geo/1km_bw/20201217.140032.SH052021.abi.goes17.Infrared-Gray.115kts.99p9.1p0.jpg

Here’s what the computer models are showing

Sustained 75 knot winds…with gusts to 90 knots

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts a dramatically weakened system, with the previously well established eye having fully filled in and dissipated, after passing over the island of Vanua Levu.

Upper-level analysis indicates radial outflow with enhanced, although weakening, poleward outflow into the mid-latitude westerlies to the south, with moderate 15-25 knot wind shear. Sea surface temperatures remain warm. TC 05P is forecast to continue tracking southeastward through 24 hours, then slowing down and turning south through 48 hours…and finally southwestward through 72 hours.

The combination of steadily increasing wind shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures will offset the continued robust outflow, leading to steady weakening through 96 hours. Around 72 hours, as the system moves over cooler waters and begins to interact with an upper-level low, it is forecast to transition to a subtropical storm.

 

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc20/WPAC/99W.INVEST/ir/geo/1km_bw/20201217.203000.WP992020.ahi.himawari8.Infrared-Gray.20kts.100p0.1p0.jpg

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 99W, which is located approximately 140 NM east-southeast of Davao, Philippines

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows an extensive region of persistent deep convection sheared to the north and west of a broad low-level circulation.

Upper-level analysis indicates a marginal environment with moderate to strong easterly wind shear offset by strong diffluence.

Global models indicate a west-northwestward track over Mindanao which will hinder development for the next 36 hours, however, the system may intensify after 36 hours as it tracks over the Sulu Sea and interacts with northeast surge flow.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium.

 

North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc21/SHEM/93S.INVEST/tc_ssmis/geoir/20201217.1255.f17.x.geoir.93SINVEST.25kts-1004mb-76S-860E.099pc.jpg

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 93S, which is located approximately 850 NM east of Diego Garcia

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a weak circulation with some sheared convection overhead.

Invest 93S is currently in an marginally favorable environment for development, with warm sea surface temperatures, good westward outflow aloft, and high 30-35 knot wind shear.

Global models are in general agreement showing invest 93S tracking generally eastward with little to no intensification.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

 

Arabian Sea

 

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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