Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    39 minutes ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - N of Kissidougou, Faranah - Guinea

    16 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Bor, Jungoli - South Sudan

    19 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - Fiji region

    3 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Klyuchevskoy, Russia

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.8 - 35 km ENE of Villa Presidente Frei, Ñuñoa, Santiago, Chile, Chile

    9 hours ago WATCH

  • Wildfire - E of Norseman, Western Australia - Australia

    3 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.8 - Auckland Islands, New Zealand region

    3 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tropical Cyclone - Thirteen

    5 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Sheveluch, Russia

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 6.9 - South Shetland Islands

    7 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 25 km S of Colombia, Colombia

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Highsurf - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    8 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Highwind - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    8 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tsunami (Pacific Ocean) - South Shetland Islands - 7.0

    9 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tsunami (Caribbean Sea) - South Shetland Islands - 7.0

    9 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Shetland Islands

    9 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.4 - South Shetland Islands

    9 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tsunami (US ATL/Gulf Coast/CAN) - in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean - 7.3

    10 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - Tirua Commune, Chile

    14 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    15 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sinabung, Indonesia

    16 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 37 km NNW of Finschhafen, Papua New Guinea

    16 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - south of the Fiji Islands

    17 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 37 km NW of Finschhafen, Papua New Guinea

    18 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - south of the Kermadec Islands

    19 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Manam, Papua New Guinea

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Raung, Indonesia

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.7 - 36 km NW of Finschhafen, Papua New Guinea

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northeastern Madagascar

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Pakistan

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Queensland, Australia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Wales, United Kingdom

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Eastern Sweden

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Switzerland

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Finland

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Paraguay

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northwestern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Zamboanga City, Philippines

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Java Province, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Aceh Province, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Philippines

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bujumbura Province, Burundi

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Southern Austria

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Northern Italy

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Slovenia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Alto Biobio Commune, Chile

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Santa Maria, Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Fort Polk, LA Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Southwestern, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Lufkin, TX Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern Kazakhstan

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Papua Province, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Sao Paulo, Brazil

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bolivia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Kenya

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Madagascar

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Central Asia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Merapi, Indonesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - La Soufriere, St Vincent and the Grenadines

    2 weeks ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Floods - Madeira, Portugal

    3 weeks ago WARNING

  • Chikungunya - Chad

    3 months ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
December 15, 2020
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 05P (Yasa)is located 325 NM northwest of Suva, Fiji
Tropical Cyclone 06P (Zazu)…is located 115 NM south of Niue

 

Western North Pacific

 

Tropical Cyclone 05P (Yasa)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/05P_151800sair.jpg

Here’s what the computer models are showing

Sustained 140 knot winds…with gusts to 170 knots (Super Typhoon)

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery depicts an intensifying system, with a well-defined 14 NM eye and spiral bands of deep convection nearly surrounding the core.

TC Yasa is tracking slowly eastward through an overall favorable environment with warm  sea surface temperatures, low 5-10 knot wind shear, and robust radial outflow.

TC 05P is forecast to continue tracking generally eastward through 24 hours, before turning southeastward through 72 hours.

The system is forecast to pass between the islands of Viti Levu and Vanua Levu near 48 hours, then continue tracking southeast through 72 hours. After this point, TC Yasa will
turn southward, then southwestward.

The system is forecast to steadily intensify, reaching a peak of 120 knots 24 hours under
favorable environmental conditions of warm sea surface temperatures, low wind shear…and radial outflow

After passing between the Fijian islands, disruption of the low-level flow, increasing wind shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures combine to weaken the system to 60 knots by 120 hours, as it begins to transition to a subtropical system.

 

Tropical Cyclone 06P (Zazu)

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/06P_151800sair.jpg

Here’s what the computer models are showing

Sustained 55 knot winds…with gusts to 70 knots

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery indicates that the system has surprisingly been somewhat successful in fending off high, westerly wind shear. Flaring convection has shown increasing organization, with spiral cloud banding developing over the past few hours, obscuring the low level circulation center.

The overall environment remains generally unfavorable with high >30 knot wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures, being somewhat offset by robust, divergent poleward outflow. TC 05P is forecast to track southeastward through the forecast period.

In the near-term, the system will intensify slightly as it transits under the highly divergent upper-level flow, ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough…offsetting the high wind shear.

 

North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

Arabian Sea

 

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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