Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    44 minutes ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - N of Kissidougou, Faranah - Guinea

    16 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Bor, Jungoli - South Sudan

    19 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - Fiji region

    3 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Klyuchevskoy, Russia

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.8 - 35 km ENE of Villa Presidente Frei, Ñuñoa, Santiago, Chile, Chile

    9 hours ago WATCH

  • Wildfire - E of Norseman, Western Australia - Australia

    3 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.8 - Auckland Islands, New Zealand region

    4 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tropical Cyclone - Thirteen

    5 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Sheveluch, Russia

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 6.9 - South Shetland Islands

    7 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 25 km S of Colombia, Colombia

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Highsurf - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    8 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Highwind - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    8 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tsunami (Pacific Ocean) - South Shetland Islands - 7.0

    9 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tsunami (Caribbean Sea) - South Shetland Islands - 7.0

    9 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Shetland Islands

    9 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.4 - South Shetland Islands

    9 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tsunami (US ATL/Gulf Coast/CAN) - in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean - 7.3

    10 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - Tirua Commune, Chile

    14 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    15 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sinabung, Indonesia

    16 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 37 km NNW of Finschhafen, Papua New Guinea

    16 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - south of the Fiji Islands

    17 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 37 km NW of Finschhafen, Papua New Guinea

    18 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - south of the Kermadec Islands

    19 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Manam, Papua New Guinea

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Raung, Indonesia

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.7 - 36 km NW of Finschhafen, Papua New Guinea

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northeastern Madagascar

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Pakistan

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Queensland, Australia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Wales, United Kingdom

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Eastern Sweden

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Switzerland

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Finland

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Paraguay

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northwestern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Zamboanga City, Philippines

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Java Province, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Aceh Province, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Philippines

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bujumbura Province, Burundi

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Southern Austria

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Northern Italy

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Slovenia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Alto Biobio Commune, Chile

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Santa Maria, Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Fort Polk, LA Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Southwestern, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Lufkin, TX Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern Kazakhstan

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Papua Province, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Sao Paulo, Brazil

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bolivia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Kenya

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Madagascar

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Central Asia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Merapi, Indonesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - La Soufriere, St Vincent and the Grenadines

    2 weeks ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Floods - Madeira, Portugal

    3 weeks ago WARNING

  • Chikungunya - Chad

    3 months ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
December 11, 2020
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 04P…is located 232 NM north-northwest of Suva, Fiji

 

Western North Pacific

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc21/SHEM/04P.FOUR/ir/geo/1km_bw/20201211.024032.SH042021.abi.goes17.Infrared-Gray.35kts.100p0.1p0.jpg

Tropical Cyclone 04P

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, environmental analysis reveals a marginal environment with high 30-35 knot wind shear being offset by diffluent flow aloft and warm sea surface temperatures.

in the near term, TC 04P is expected to track west-southwestward to westward. As the system continues to track along the southern periphery of Invest 91P, which is forecast to intensify into a tropical cyclone over the  next 1-2 days. Due to the proximity of invest 91P to TC 04P, there will likely be some direct cyclone interaction, and possible fujiwhara effects in 60 hours.

Due to the complex scenario, there is high uncertainty in the track forecast and intensity forecast as models have been inconsistent from run to run. The GFS indicates invest 91P will be the dominant system with TC 04P skirting westward towards Vanuatu. Conversely, the NAVGEM model shows TC 04P as the dominant system, turning it sharply poleward by  36 hours…then tracks southeastward passing to the west of Fiji.

TC 04P is forecast to struggle through 48 hours with a slightly intensification. After 48 hours, the merged system should gradually intensify as the environment improves with steady intensification to a peak of 80 knots by 120 hours.

The JTWC forecast track shows a slow nearly stationary motion from 48 to 96 hours. Following this, an approaching trough will cause TC 04P to begin to move poleward. Through 36 hours, the system is expected to struggle due to persistent high wind shear.

Afterwards, the merged system is forecast to gradually intensify to a peak of 80 knots by 120 hours, as the surrounding environment improves. The complexity of this scenario also presents an alternate scenario where invest 91P becomes the dominant system and TC 04P dissipates.

 

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc21/SHEM/91P.INVEST/ir/geo/1km_bw/20201211.141032.SH912021.abi.goes17.Infrared-Gray.25kts.89p1.1p0.jpg

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 91P, which is located approximately 423 NM north-northeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, Invest 91P is in a favorable environment for development, with low to moderate 10-20 knot wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and strong outflow aloft.

Global models are somewhat split, showing that 91P will track generally southeastward, becoming absorbed into TC 04P. Other models are showing that Invest 91P will become the dominant circulation, intensifying and eventually absorbing TC 04P.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is remains medium.

 

North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

Arabian Sea

 

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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