Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    33 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - N of Kissidougou, Faranah - Guinea

    15 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Bor, Jungoli - South Sudan

    18 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - Fiji region

    2 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Klyuchevskoy, Russia

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.8 - 35 km ENE of Villa Presidente Frei, Ñuñoa, Santiago, Chile, Chile

    9 hours ago WATCH

  • Wildfire - E of Norseman, Western Australia - Australia

    3 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.8 - Auckland Islands, New Zealand region

    3 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    3 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tropical Cyclone - Thirteen

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sheveluch, Russia

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 6.9 - South Shetland Islands

    6 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 25 km S of Colombia, Colombia

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Highsurf - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Highwind - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tsunami (Pacific Ocean) - South Shetland Islands - 7.0

    8 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tsunami (Caribbean Sea) - South Shetland Islands - 7.0

    8 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Shetland Islands

    8 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.4 - South Shetland Islands

    9 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tsunami (US ATL/Gulf Coast/CAN) - in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean - 7.3

    9 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - Tirua Commune, Chile

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    14 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sinabung, Indonesia

    16 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 37 km NNW of Finschhafen, Papua New Guinea

    16 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - south of the Fiji Islands

    16 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 37 km NW of Finschhafen, Papua New Guinea

    18 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - south of the Kermadec Islands

    18 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Manam, Papua New Guinea

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Raung, Indonesia

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.7 - 36 km NW of Finschhafen, Papua New Guinea

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northeastern Madagascar

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Pakistan

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Queensland, Australia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Wales, United Kingdom

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Eastern Sweden

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Switzerland

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Finland

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Paraguay

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northwestern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Zamboanga City, Philippines

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Java Province, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Aceh Province, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Philippines

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bujumbura Province, Burundi

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Southern Austria

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Northern Italy

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Slovenia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Alto Biobio Commune, Chile

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Santa Maria, Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Fort Polk, LA Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Southwestern, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Lufkin, TX Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern Kazakhstan

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Papua Province, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Sao Paulo, Brazil

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bolivia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Kenya

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Madagascar

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Central Asia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Merapi, Indonesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - La Soufriere, St Vincent and the Grenadines

    2 weeks ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    6 months ago WARNING

  • Floods - Madeira, Portugal

    3 weeks ago WARNING

  • Chikungunya - Chad

    3 months ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
December 10, 2020
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 02S (Bongoyo)…is located 920 NM south of Diego Garcia
Tropical Cyclone 03S…is located 221 NM northeast of Learmonth, Australia
Tropical Cyclone 04P…is located 370 NM north-northeast of  Suva, Fiji

 

Western North Pacific

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc21/SHEM/04P.FOUR/ir/geo/1km_bw/20201211.024032.SH042021.abi.goes17.Infrared-Gray.35kts.100p0.1p0.jpg

Tropical Cyclone 04P

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, environmental analysis reveals that the system is currently in a generally unfavorable environment, with high 20-30 knot westerly wind shear, offsetting robust equatorward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures.

TC 04P is forecast to continue tracking southwest through 24 hours, while slowly intensifying in a marginally supportive environment. After 48 hours, TC 04P will absorb nearby invest 91P, forming a much larger tropical cyclone…which will drift slowly southward between Vanuatu and Fiji through 120 hours.

After 36 hours as the two systems move towards each other, the upper level pattern will become for favorable for TC 04P, resulting in a period of steady intensification…reaching 80 knots by 120 hours.

 

 

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc21/SHEM/91P.INVEST/ssmi/geoir/20201210.0406.f15.x.geoir.91PINVEST.20kts-1002mb-119S-1707E.040pc.jpg

There’s a second tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 91P, which is located approximately 425 NM north-northeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, Invest 91P is in a favorable environment for development, with low 10-20 knot wind shear, excellent dual channel outflow aloft, and warm sea surface temperatures,

Global models are somewhat split that 91P will track generally east-southeast with little intensification, before it begins Fujiwhara interaction with Invest 90P. This system will eventually be absorbed, however the GFS model is resolving Invest 91P as the dominant circulation…intensifying it over the next several days.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.

 

North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 02S (Bongoyo)

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc21/SHEM/02S.BONGOYO/ssmi/geoir/20201210.1050.f15.x.geoir.02SBONGOYO.35kts-1002mb-214S-753E.068pc.jpg

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a partially exposed low level circulation center, with rapidly decaying convection.

This is an elongated circulation with a swath of 35-40 knot winds over the southwest quadrant wrapping into a defined center.

TC 02S has slowed…although is expected to accelerate westward through the rest of the forecast period.

Models are in good agreement that the storm will continue to weaken due to cool sea surface temperatures and strong 25-30 knot wind shear…with dissipation expected within 36 hours.

 

Tropical Cyclone 03S

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc21/SHEM/03S.THREE/vis/viirs/1km/20201210.064210.jpss.viirs.Visible.tc2103STHREE.covg83p6.NASA.res1km.jpg

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, upper air analysis indicates an improved environment, with low 10-15 knot wind shear, and good poleward outflow, which should allow TC 03S to intensify to 45 knots within 12 hours.

The system will dissipate rapidly as it tracks over land.

 

Arabian Sea

 

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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