Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    6 hours ago WATCH

  • Flooding - Northern Philippines

    14 minutes ago WARNING

  • Floods - South India

    14 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - N of Ravensthorpe, Western Australia - Australia

    16 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - N of Ravensthorpe, Western Australia - Australia

    16 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Birao, Vakaga - Central African Republic

    15 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Diapaga, Tapoa - Burkina Faso

    15 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Malakal, Upper Nile - South Sudan

    15 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Grafton, New South Wales - Australia

    16 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Katoomba, New South Wales - Australia

    16 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Batemans Bay, New South Wales - Australia

    16 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NE of Esperance, Western Australia - Australia

    16 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Tropical Cyclone - Pawan

    24 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    2 hours ago WATCH

  • Wildfire - W of Juan Jose Castelli, Chaco - Argentina

    42 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Chos Malal, Neuquén - Argentina

    42 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.7 - 173km NW of Hihifo, Tonga

    5 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Depression - Kammuri

    23 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Asosan, Japan

    3 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Charleston, MO Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Mitchell, SD Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Tropical Cyclone - Ambali

    6 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 164km WNW of Hihifo, Tonga

    7 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Highsurf - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Winter Storm - Western, United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 138km ENE of Bristol Island, South Sandwich Islands

    10 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Nishinoshima, Japan

    10 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tropical Cyclone - Belna

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 128km SSE of Pondaguitan, Philippines

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - Western Indian-Antarctic Ridge

    19 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Highwind - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    19 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 63km NNE of Isangel, Vanuatu

    21 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    22 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - El Quisco, Chile

    1 day ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Central New Zealand

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southeastern New Zealand

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Eastern South Korea

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Scotland, United Kingdom

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northeastern France

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southeastern Italy

    1 day ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Northern Germany

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Banff, Yoho and Kootenay National Park, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Glacier National Park, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern Alaska, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Gunnison and Aspen, Colorado, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Eastern New Mexico

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Northern South Africa

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Floods - Western and Northern DR Congo

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Bududa, Uganda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 171km E of Kurilsk, Russia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangeang Api, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Sironko, Uganda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Cunene Province, Angola

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Northwest Territories, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Madiera, Portugal

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Western Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bolivia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Argentina

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northwestern Argentina

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Somalia and Kenya

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Djibouti City, Djibouti

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Uganda

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northwestern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Argentina

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Central Asia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Pakistan

    2 weeks ago ADVISORY

  • Dengue Outbreak - Philippines

    3 months ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Etna, Italy

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo/Uganda

    5 months ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Western Wyoming, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Southeastern Idaho, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Northern Utah, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Republic of the Sudan

    1 week ago ADVISORY

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
December 1, 2019

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:

Tropical Cyclone 29W (Kammuri)…located approximately 336 NM east-southeast of Manila, Philippines

 

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/abpwsair.jpg

 

Tropical Cyclone 29W (Kammuri) will be a typhoon as it moves into the central Philippines. The storm will bring heavy weather to the area of impact and inland from there…along with high surf and storm surge.

Sustained winds are 90 knots with gusts to 110 knots…as of Warning 26

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, the environment is conducive for further intensification with warm sea surface temperatures, low 10-20 knot wind shear, improving outflow…and favorable ocean heat content values.

Kammuri will track westward and steadily strengthen…with landfall in the central Philippines, and then on into the South China Sea.

After 72 hours, the typhoon will turn west-southwest, and then after 96 hours on to the south-southwest to southward…leading to a rapid decrease in storm intensity due to increasing wind shear.

As a result, TY Kammuri will begin to dissipate over water starting at 96 hours…with complete dissipation by 120 hours.

 

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 95W, located approximately 125 NM east of Chuuk.

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, upper air analysis reveals a moderately favorable environment with good euatorward outflow, and moderate 15-25 knot wind shear.

Sea surface temperatures remain favorable for development.

Global models are in good agreement that 95W will continue to consolidate…as it tracks westward.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium.

 

Additionally, there’s a second tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 91S, which is located approximately 130 NM southwest of Mahe, Seychelles

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, the upper level environment is moderately favorable for development, with moderate 15-25 knot wind shear…and good equatorward outflow.

Sea surface temperatures remain favorable.

Global models predict that 91S will steadily intensify and track southward.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium

 

In addition, there’s a third tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 90A, which is located approximately 723 NM northeast of Mogadishu, Somalia

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, upper level analysis a moderately favorable environment for development, with warm sea surface temperatures, good westward outflow…and low <15 knot wind shear.

Global models are now in agreement,  showing 90A steadily intensifying while tracking northwestward towards Socotra

Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 20-25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.

 

In addition, there’s a fourth tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 91A, which is located approximately 214 southwest of Cochin, India

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, upper level analysis shows a moderately favorable environment for development, with warm sea surface temperatures, good westward outflow…and low <15 knot wind shear.

Global models are in general agreement,  showing 91A tracking northwestward, with minimal intensification.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 10-15 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hour is low.

 

 

Northeast Pacific

There are no active tropical cyclones

PDC will resume production of these daily reports when the 2020 hurricane season begins again on May 15th.

Here’s an animated color enhanced satellite image of the central and eastern Pacific

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no active tropical cyclones

PDC will resume production of these daily reports when the 2020 hurricane season begins again on June 1st.

2019 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

The 2019 hurricane season featured five tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) area of responsibility, which is near the season average. Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. The Central Pacific basin extends from 140°W to the International Date Line. Four to five tropical cyclones occur during an average year.

Hurricane Erick was the first tropical cyclone of the season in the Central Pacific, moving into the basin from the east on July 30. Erick rapidly intensified to a major hurricane (category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) later that day, then steadily weakened as it passed far south of the main Hawaiian Islands. Tropical Storm Flossie entered the basin on August 3 and approached Hawaii from the east, eventually dissipating before reaching the islands. Tropical Depression 12-E entered the basin on September 4 and strengthened to Tropical Storm Akoni. Akoni was the first tropical cyclone to be named from the Central Pacific list of names since Hurricane Walaka in 2018. Tropical Depression Kiko entered the basin on September 24 and immediately dissipated. Tropical Storm Ema, the second cyclone to be named from the Central Pacific list of names, developed southwest of the main Hawaiian Islands on October 12. Ema dissipated over the southern portion of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument shortly before crossing between French Frigate Shoals and Maro Reef.

Impacts to the State of Hawaii: Swells from Tropical Cyclone Barbara, which dissipated just before crossing into the Central Pacific basin, led to high surf along east facing shores of the state during July 6-9. Remnant moisture from Barbara also led to heavy rain across Maui and Hawaii Counties during July 8-11. Swells generated by Tropical Cyclones Erick and Flossie led to high surf along east and south facing shores during August 1-6. Moisture associated with Erick also contributed to heavy rain over Hawaii County on August 2, and across Kauai County during August 4-5.

Hurricane Season Outlook: NOAA’s 2019 hurricane season outlook issued on May 22, 2019, called for five to eight tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific basin, with a 70% chance of above-normal tropical cyclone activity, a 20% chance of near-normal activity, and a 10% chance of below-normal activity. The 2019 season started with an El Niño event that was expected to last through the fall. Instead, steady cooling commenced early in the summer leading to neutral conditions by the heart of the hurricane season.

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone  29W (Kammuri)

JTWC textual warning
JTWC graphical track map

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

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