CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 14E (Nora)…is located about 300 miles east-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico
NORA CAUSING VERY HEAVY RAINS ALONG THE COASTS OF JALISCO AND NAYARIT…HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO SINALOA OVERNIGHT
What the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone 14E (Nora)
According to the NHC Advisory 14…Nora is moving toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is likely tonight or on Sunday, followed by a slower northwestward motion Sunday night through Tuesday. Nora is forecast to move roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico through early near week. However, even a small deviation to the right of the forecast track could cause Nora to move farther inland and dissipate. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the day or two if Nora’s center stays over the waters of the Gulf of California. However, rapid weakening will likely occur if the center moves further inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area along the coast of mainland Mexico beginning later today. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area later today and may spread to the northern portions of the watch area tomorrow. Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring over southern portions of the tropical storm warning area and will spread to the northern portions of the warning area later today and tomorrow.
RAINFALL: Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
As Nora continues north-northwest, heavy rainfall will move into the Baja California Sur late Sunday into Monday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are forecast, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible across southern portions of Baja California Sur. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur as a result.
Additional heavy rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches are possible across Sinaloa and Sonora during the middle to latter part of next week as Nora moves northwest through the Gulf of California.
Toward the middle and latter part of next week, moisture associated with Nora may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern U.S. into the central Great Basin and central Rockies.
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could produce coastal flooding near where the center passes the coast, or east of the center if Nora makes landfall. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California over the weekend and into early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
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