CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 16W (Omais)…is located approximately 135 NM south-southwest of Jeju Island, South Korea – Final Warning
Tropical Cyclone 13E (Marty)…is located 300 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California
What the computer models are showing for TC 13E (Marty)
MARTY STRENGTHENS A LITTLE WHILE PASSING TO THE NORTH OF CLARION ISLAND…EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
According to the NHC Advisory 3…Marty is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is forecast over the next few days. Satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected this afternoon and tonight. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Tuesday, and Marty is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by early Wednesday and degenerate into a remnant low Wednesday night or early Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center.
A broad area of low pressure located less than 200 miles offshore of Guatemala and southern Mexico is producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle to latter part of this week. The system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph this week, passing offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent
Tropical Cyclone 16W (Omais) – Final Warning
Sustained 25 knot winds…with gusts to 35 knots (as of Warning Number 44)
According to the JTWC…animated multi-spectral satellite imagery shows the fully-exposed low level circulation has begun to elongate and unravel as it accelerated deeper into higher relative wind shear in the East China Sea.
Analysis indicates an unfavorable environment with high (40 knot+) wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures (and decreasing) slightly…offset by medium equatorward outflow. TD 16W will continue to accelerate northeastward along the poleward side of the subtropical ridge to the east, cross South Korea, and exit into the Sea of Japan after 12 hours.
The harsh environment plus land interaction will dissipate the system by 12 hours.
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