CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 16W (Omais)…is located about 189 miles northwest of Kadena AB, Okinawa, Japan
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located about 100 miles west of the coast of west-central Mexico are becoming better organized. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form later today or on Monday while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph, away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent
>>> An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of southern Mexico early next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by mid-week. The system is forecast to move generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, near or just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent
Tropical Cyclone 16W (Omais)
Sustained 30 knot winds…with gusts to 40 knots (as of Warning Number 43)
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery shows the fully exposed low level circulation has further sheared from the central convection, now 60+ NM to the south.
Analysis indicates an unfavorable environment with warm sea surface temperatures and moderate equatorward outflow, offset by subsidence along the northwestern flank ahead of a mid-latitude trough and high wind shear.
TS 16W will crest the ridge axis, then turn more north-northeastward before 12 hours, as it rounds the western edge of the ridge and by 24 hours, should be in the vicinity of Jeju Island, South Korea. The unfavorable environment will continue to erode the system leading to dissipation by 24 hours, possibly sooner.
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