CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 16W (Omais)…is located about 171 miles southwest of Kadena AB
The remnants of Grace, located over central Mexico, are expected to continue moving westward and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean off the west-central coast of Mexico by Sunday afternoon. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent
>>> An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of southern Mexico early next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week. The system is forecast to move generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, near or just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent
Tropical Cyclone 16W (Omais)
Sustained 45 knot winds…with gusts to 55 knots (as of Warning Number 39)
According to the JTWC…satellite imagery shows slight improvement as the compact feeder bands wrapped tighter into the low level circulation center
Analysis indicates a marginally favorable environment with low to medium wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and moderate radial outflow, offset by subsidence along the northwestern flank ahead of a mid-latitude trough.
TS 16W will turn more northward as it rounds the western edge of the ridge by 18 hours, in the East China Sea. Afterward, it will accelerate north-northeastward, cross South Korea, and by 72 hours will exit into the Sea of Japan
The marginally favorable environment will fuel a slight intensification to a peak of 55 knots at 12 hours. Afterward, increasing wind shear on the back side of the aforementioned mid-latitude trough and land interaction will gradually erode the system down to 30 knots by 72 hours.
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