Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Wildfire - SE of Chittagong - Bangladesh

    4 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    8 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Soufrière St. Vincent, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

    24 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    59 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - St. Louis, MO--IL Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Telimele, Kindia - Guinea

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - NW of Chico, California - United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Pinal County (Margo Fire), Arizona, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NW of Safford, Arizona - United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Alachua, FL Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Tropical Cyclone - Twentyeight

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Cyclone - Seroja

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Excelsior Springs, MO Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 44 km SSW of Gongdanglegi Kulon, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 6.1 - 168 km SSW of Sarangani, Philippines

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 21 km S of Sumberpucung, Indonesia

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - South Shetland Islands

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Floods - Southeastern, United States

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 195 km N of Madang, Papua New Guinea

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    16 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Pacific Ocean

    18 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sinabung, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - New South Wales, Australia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Switzerland

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Yukon, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Loreto, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - British Columbia, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cusco, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Uruguay

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Quilotoa, Ecuador

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Bjaur, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, Pakistan

    2 days ago INFORMATION

  • Floods - Dominican Republic

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Valle Cannobina Municipality, Italy

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Guinea

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Madagascar

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern Africa

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - U.S. Virgin Islands

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Butembo, DRC

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    8 months ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
April 8, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 26S (Seroja)…is located approximately 292 NM northwest of Learmonth, Australia
Tropical Cyclone 27S…is located approximately 654 NM northwest of Learmonth, Australia

 

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/26S_081800sair.jpg

Tropical Cyclone 26S (Seroja)

Sustained 45 knot winds…with gusts to 55 knots (as of Warning Number 18)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows the system has continued to be battered by easterly shear.

Analysis indicates an improving environment with very warm sea surface temperatures, slight radial outflow aloft, and improving light to moderate 10-15 knot easterly wind shear.

The cyclone is expected to slightly wobble and pull to the right as a result of binary interaction with TC 27S that will approach TC 26S to within 250 NM.

The aforementioned favorable conditions will potentially fuel a rapid intensification to a peak of 100 knots by 48 hours. Afterward, there will be an increase in wind shear, cooling sea surface temperatures, and landfall into Southwest Australia just after 72 hours. Once over land, the system will rapidly erode down to 40 knots by 96 hours and undergo extra-tropical transition.

Just beyond 96 hours, the system is expected to completely become a cold-core gale-force low exiting into the Australian bight, becoming fully extra-tropical before 120 hours.

 

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/27S_081800sair.jpg

Tropical Cyclone 27S

Sustained 40 knot winds…with gusts to 50 knots (as of Warning Number 16)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a decrease in overall size of the system with only a small region of convection remaining on the southern side. TC 27S is currently being absorbed into the northwestern portion of TC 26S and will continue losing more of its convective structure as it wraps along the northern portion of TC 26S during the next couple days.

Analysis indicates the cyclone is in a marginal environment with moderate subsidence aloft along the eastern half due to the outflow from TC 26S, and moderate to strong 20-25 knot easterly wind shear that are partly offset by warm sea surface temperatures.

Binary interaction is likely to begin within the next 12 to 24 hours with the Fujiwara effect resulting in TC 27S tracking cyclonically around in a northeastward arc. Warm water and increased outflow is expected to marginally offset the wind shear and promote a modest intensification to a peak of 45 knots by 24 hours near the crest of the arc.

Afterward, it will rapidly decay as it gets absorbed into the more dominant TC 26S, leading to complete dissipation by 36 hours, possibly sooner.

 

 

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc21/SHEM/91S.INVEST/ir/geo/1km_bw/20210408.140000.SH912021.ahi.himawari-8.Infrared-Gray.25kts.100p0.1p0.jpg

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 91S, which is located approximately 221 NM north-northwest of Cocos Islands, Australia

Here’s was the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows cycling convection to the southwest of an obscure low level circulation.

Invest 91S is in a marginal environment for tropical development with good poleward outflow aloft and warm sea surface temperatures…offset by strong 25-30 knot wind shear.

Invest 91S is in a marginal environment for tropical development with good poleward outflow aloft and warm sea surface temperatures…offset by strong 25-30 knot wind shear.

Global models are in good agreement that invest 91S will consolidate and intensify over the next 48-72 hours as it tracks to the southeast…under an area of moderate 15-25 knot wind shear.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25-30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

 

 

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc21/SHEM/92P.INVEST/ir/geo/1km_bw/20210408.022000.SH922021.ahi.himawari-8.Infrared-Gray.20kts.100p0.1p0.jpg

There’s a second tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 92P, which is located approximately 407 NM east-northeast of Willis Island, Australia

Here’s was the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows disorganized, fragmented convection surrounding a partially obscure low level circulation elongated along a northwest to southeast axis.

Invest 92P is in a favorable environment for tropical development with warm sea surface temperatures, low  5-10 knot wind shear, and excellent poleward outflow.

Global models are in good agreement that invest 92P will consolidate as it tracks to the southeast, remaining largely asymmetric, potentially reaching warning threshold in the next several days.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

 

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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