Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    5 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Soufrière St. Vincent, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

    19 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    53 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    55 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    59 minutes ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - St. Louis, MO--IL Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Telimele, Kindia - Guinea

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - NW of Chico, California - United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Pinal County (Margo Fire), Arizona, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NW of Safford, Arizona - United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - Alachua, FL Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SE of Chittagong - Bangladesh

    3 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tropical Cyclone - Twentyeight

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Cyclone - Seroja

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Excelsior Springs, MO Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 44 km SSW of Gongdanglegi Kulon, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 6.1 - 168 km SSW of Sarangani, Philippines

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 21 km S of Sumberpucung, Indonesia

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - South Shetland Islands

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Floods - Southeastern, United States

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 195 km N of Madang, Papua New Guinea

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    16 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Pacific Ocean

    18 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sinabung, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - New South Wales, Australia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Switzerland

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Yukon, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Loreto, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - British Columbia, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cusco, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Uruguay

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Quilotoa, Ecuador

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Bjaur, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, Pakistan

    2 days ago INFORMATION

  • Floods - Dominican Republic

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Valle Cannobina Municipality, Italy

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Guinea

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Madagascar

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern Africa

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - U.S. Virgin Islands

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Butembo, DRC

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    8 months ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
April 7, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 26S (Seroja)…is located approximately 384 NM north of Learmonth, Australia
Tropical Cyclone 27S…is located approximately 586 NM northwest of Learmonth, Australia

 

 

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/26S_080000sair.jpg

Tropical Cyclone 26S (Seroja)

Sustained 55 knot winds…with gusts to 70 knots (as of Warning Number 15)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows disorganized and fragmented convection flaring just west of the assessed core of TC 26S, indicative of the persistent easterly vertical wind shear.

While still marginal, environmental conditions have improved slightly, with CIMSS shear estimates now below 15 knots and water vapor imagery starting show some hints of improved outflow aloft. TC 26S is forecast to continue tracking southwestward along the northwest periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge over western Australia through 48 hours, then near 72 hours accelerate southeastward through 120 hours.

The system is expected to undergo binary interaction with TC 27S, but as the dominate system, the interaction is not expected to impact the overall track of TC 26S, though some slight westward wobble is possible between 24 and 36 hours.

As environmental shear slowly relaxes, slow intensification is forecast through 36 hours. The system is forecast to rapidly intensify from 60 knots to 110 knots between 36 and 72 hours, as an upper-level point wind shear drops below 10 knots and the system taps into a poleward outflow channel.

After rounding the ridge axis, the system will rapidly weaken under the influence of convergent flow aloft, increasing shear and cooler waters. As the system makes landfall south of Shark Bay around 96 hours, it will begin extra-tropical transition, and is expected to complete this transition by 120 hours before emerging into the Great Australian Bight.

 

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/27S_080000sair.jpg

Tropical Cyclone 27S

Sustained 40 knot winds…with gusts to 50 knots (as of Warning Number 13)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows deep convection once again flaring near the core of the system, and obscuring the low level circulation center. The bulk of the convection remains sheared to the southwest under moderate northeasterly wind shear.

By 24 hours TC 27S will move to within 330 NM of TC 26S, be captured by TC 26S and begin binary interaction. Once the system is captured it will accelerate onto a northeast, then east and ultimately southward track, moving progressively closer to TC 26S and ultimately merging with it no later than 96 hours.

Moderate east-northeast shear is expected to continue for the next 12-18 hours, which will inhibit near-term intensification. Once the system starts to move north and out from under the outflow emanating from TC 26S, it will experience reduced shear and may for a short time develop its own outflow aloft, allowing for a short burst of intensification through 48 hours.

After starting its dive southward after tau 48, the combination of increasingly convergence outflow, increasing shear and disruption of the low level wind field due to interaction with TC 26S, it will begin to rapidly weaken prior to merger with TC 26S.

 

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc21/SHEM/91S.INVEST/ir/geo/1km_bw/20210407.142000.SH912021.ahi.himawari-8.Infrared-Gray.20kts.100p0.1p0.jpg

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 91S, which is located approximately 326 NM north-northwest of Cocos Islands, Australia

Here’s was the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows disorganized banding with cycling convection to the south-southwest of a broad low level circulation.

Invest 91S is in a marginal environment for tropical development with good poleward outflow aloft and warm sea surface temperatures offset by strong 20-25 knot wind shear.

Invest 91S is in a marginal environment for tropical development with good poleward outflow aloft and warm sea surface temperatures…offset by strong 25-30 knot wind shear.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25-30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

 

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc21/SHEM/92P.INVEST/ir/geo/1km_bw/20210408.022000.SH922021.ahi.himawari-8.Infrared-Gray.20kts.100p0.1p0.jpg

There’s a second tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 92P, which is located approximately 520 NM east-southeast of Port Moresby, Palua, New Guinea

Here’s was the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows cycling convection of an obscured low level circulation center.

Invest 92P is in a marginal environment for tropical development, with low 5-10 knot wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures…which is offset by weak poleward outflow.

Global models are in good agreement that invest 92P will consolidate over the next 24-48 hours, as it tracks to the southeast under an area of weak 15-20 knot wind shear.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25-30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

 

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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