Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Volcano - Soufrière St. Vincent, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

    10 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    44 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    46 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    50 minutes ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    56 minutes ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - St. Louis, MO--IL Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Telimele, Kindia - Guinea

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - NW of Chico, California - United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Pinal County (Margo Fire), Arizona, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NW of Safford, Arizona - United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - Alachua, FL Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SE of Chittagong - Bangladesh

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tropical Cyclone - Twentyeight

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Cyclone - Seroja

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Excelsior Springs, MO Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 44 km SSW of Gongdanglegi Kulon, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 6.1 - 168 km SSW of Sarangani, Philippines

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 21 km S of Sumberpucung, Indonesia

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - South Shetland Islands

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Floods - Southeastern, United States

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 195 km N of Madang, Papua New Guinea

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    16 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Pacific Ocean

    18 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sinabung, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - New South Wales, Australia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Switzerland

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Yukon, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Loreto, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - British Columbia, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cusco, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Uruguay

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Quilotoa, Ecuador

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Bjaur, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, Pakistan

    2 days ago INFORMATION

  • Floods - Dominican Republic

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Valle Cannobina Municipality, Italy

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Guinea

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Madagascar

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern Africa

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - U.S. Virgin Islands

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Butembo, DRC

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    8 months ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
April 6, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 26S (Seroja)…is located approximately 584 NM north-northeast of Learmonth, Australia
Tropical Cyclone 27S…is located approximately 593 NM northwest of Learmonth, Australia

 

 

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/26S_070000sair.jpg

Tropical Cyclone 26S (Seroja)

Sustained 45 knot winds…with gusts to 55 knots (as of Warning Number 11)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows that the system is being significantly impacted by easterly shear, with weak fragmented convection sheared to the west, exposing the low level circulation center.

The system has slowed significantly over the past six hours, but is still traveling southwestward, along the northwest periphery of deep subtropical ridge over western Australia. The overall environment is marginal with moderate 15-20 knot easterly wind shear, weak outflow aloft and warm sea surface temperatures.

TC 27S will approach from the west in 48, but TC 26S being the dominate system, will experience little to no impact in overall track motion for the passage of TC 27S.

The impact of the moderate wind shear is expected to continue through the next 24 hours, and some additional near-term weakening is possible, though the intensity is forecast to remain steady for the next 12 hours.

After 24 hours, there will be a faster rate of intensification through 48 hours. By 72 hours, the system will begin to tap into a strong poleward outflow channel ahead of the approaching mid-latitude trough, allowing for a burst of additional intensification to a peak of 100 knots by 96 hours, with steady weakening thereafter as wind shear increases as it interacts with the strong westerly flow aloft.

 

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/27S_061800sair.jpg

Tropical Cyclone 27S

Sustained 40 knot winds…with gusts to 50 knots (as of Warning Number 9)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a disorganized and overall weakened system, with flaring deep convection sheared southwest of the assessed low level circulation center.

The system lies in a marginal environment with moderate 15-20 knot northeasterly wind shear, being offset by warm sea surface temperatures and robust poleward outflow…and some dry air in the mid-levels.

The overall steering pattern remains weak, although 27S is expected to very slowly drift northward over the next 48 hours along the eastern periphery of a weak near equatorial ridge.

After 48 hours, the system will start to accelerate east, then southeast and ultimately southward as the binary interaction with TC 26S becomes the dominant steering influence. TC 27S will rapidly transit across the northern and northeastern periphery of TC 26S, and ultimately dissipate or merge with TC 26S by 120 hours.

In the upper levels, the general east-northeast flow and outflow from TC 26S are combining to impinge on the eastern side of the system, and limit development. This general pattern is expected to continue through 48 hours, but once the system begins to move into the northern periphery of TC 26S, allowing a burst of intensification, reaching a peak of 50 knots by 72 hours.

After moving to the east of TC 26S by 96 hours, the outflow environment becomes convergent, allowing for rapid weakening and dissipation by 120 hours.  Dynamic model guidance is in very poor agreement, with several consensus members depicting a scenario in which TC 27S does not interact with TC 26S and instead tracks northwestward.

The JTWC forecast remains consistent with the previous forecast, with low confidence in light of the complexities of the binary interaction forecast…and the very high uncertainty depicted in the model guidance.

 

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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