Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Volcano - Soufrière St. Vincent, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

    3 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    38 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    40 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    44 minutes ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    50 minutes ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    54 minutes ago WARNING

  • Flood - St. Louis, MO--IL Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Telimele, Kindia - Guinea

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - NW of Chico, California - United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Pinal County (Margo Fire), Arizona, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NW of Safford, Arizona - United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - Alachua, FL Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SE of Chittagong - Bangladesh

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tropical Cyclone - Twentyeight

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Cyclone - Seroja

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Excelsior Springs, MO Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 44 km SSW of Gongdanglegi Kulon, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 6.1 - 168 km SSW of Sarangani, Philippines

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 21 km S of Sumberpucung, Indonesia

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - South Shetland Islands

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Floods - Southeastern, United States

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 195 km N of Madang, Papua New Guinea

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    16 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Pacific Ocean

    18 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sinabung, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - New South Wales, Australia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Switzerland

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Yukon, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Loreto, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - British Columbia, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cusco, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Uruguay

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Quilotoa, Ecuador

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Bjaur, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, Pakistan

    2 days ago INFORMATION

  • Floods - Dominican Republic

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Valle Cannobina Municipality, Italy

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Guinea

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Madagascar

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern Africa

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - U.S. Virgin Islands

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Butembo, DRC

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    8 months ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
April 5, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 26S (Seroja)…is located approximately 734 NM north-northeast of Learmonth, Australia
Tropical Cyclone 27S…is located approximately 610 NM northwest of Learmonth, Australia

 

 

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/26S_051800sair.jpg

Tropical Cyclone 26S

Sustained 55 knot winds…with gusts to 70 knots (as of Warning Number 7)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows the system continuing to consolidate around a region of deep convection with fragmented rain bands.

TC 26S is in a marginally favorable environment with fair radial outflow, slightly offset with moderate 15-20 knot wind shear and warm sea surface temperature.

The cyclone will continue to move southwest as the main subtropical ridge builds in from the southeast, and the near equatorial ridge to the northeast weakens over the Flores sea and becomes less of an influence to TC Seroja.

Environmental conditions will become more favorable along the forecast track, allowing for steady intensification to a peak of 100 knots by 96 hours. Afterward, increasing wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures will weaken the system down to 95 knots as the cyclone tracks more southward in response to the steering ridge weakening and receding eastward.

Numerical models are in fairly tight agreement up to 72 hours. Afterward, along and cross track errors become significant across all models, likely due to possible binary interaction with TC 27S, currently in the Indian ocean south of Christmas Island. This interaction seems to be less prominent in the later hours of the model solutions at this time…due to the high track error of TC 26S.

 

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/27S_051800sair.jpg

Tropical Cyclone 27S

Sustained 40 knot winds…with gusts to 50 knots (as of Warning Number 5)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows deep convection sheared to the south of an obscured low level circulation center.

Analysis indicates a marginally favorable environment with moderate 15-20 knot wind shear, offset with strong poleward outflow aloft, and warm sea surface temperatures.

TC 27S is expected to remain quasi-stationary with some slight eastward motion as the near equatorial ridge to the northeast weakens and recedes westward through 48 hours. After 48 hours, the system is expected to turn more poleward as the subtropical ridge to the southeast will assume steering.

The slow motion of the system and marginally favorable environment will fuel a slow intensification to a peak of 60 knots by 72 hours. Afterward, the cyclone will weaken to 45 knots by 120 hours, as possible binary interaction with TC 26S begins to absorb TC 27S.

 

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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